As he enters his eighth and final year in office, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has taken steps in recent weeks to shape public opinion on the legacy of his governance. These efforts come at a time when the president’s approval rating, according to a May 15 TVBS poll, stands at 16 percent, with fewer than eight months until the next presidential election.
Ma led the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) to victory in the 2008 election with 58.4 percent of the vote and in the 2012 election with 51.6 percent. As a presidential candidate, Ma prominently campaigned on his “6-3-3” pledge, which promised an economic growth rate of 6 percent, an unemployment rate of less than 3 percent and per capita income of more than US$30,000.
In 2012, Ma’s main platform for re-election was creating a “Golden Decade” for Taiwan in which economic vitality, social justice, clean government, education and culture, sustainable environment, infrastructure construction, cross-strait peace and international cooperation would be deepened and strengthened.
Most criticism from the opposition has legitimately centered on the failure or limited realization of lofty campaign promises. Notwithstanding, this article seeks to recount and assess objectively the achievements of Ma’s presidency from the perspectives of cross-strait relations, economics and democracy.
First, ties or tension across the Taiwan Strait affect regional security and development. Since Ma took office, resumed dialogue and reduced tension across the Taiwan Strait have normalized economic and cultural exchanges. In 10 rounds of cross-strait talks between the Straits Exchange Foundation and China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits and the signing of 21 cross-strait economic or functional agreements, the government has established direct flights, permitted Chinese tourists and students to enter Taiwan and lifted the ban on cross-strait investments by financial holding companies.
In particular, the 2010 Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement lowers tariffs and relaxes market access for 539 products and services for Taiwan. Cross-strait rapprochement culminated in the first direct high-level talks between officials from Taipei and Beijing since 1949. In February last year, then-Mainland Affairs Council minister Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) met with Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office Minister Zhang Zhijun (張志軍) in Nanjing, China, and agreed to forge direct communications.
Ma’s approach of “no unification, no independence and no use of force” to maintain the cross-strait “status quo” and set aside the sovereignty dispute has experienced some degree of success in expanding Taiwan’s international recognition. Taiwan has participated as an observer in the World Health Assembly in 2009 and the International Civil Aviation Organization in 2013 as a guest. Taiwanese enjoy visa-free or visa-on-arrival travel to 143 countries and territories, including the US. In April last year, Taiwan and Japan signed a fisheries agreement to jointly conserve and manage fisheries resources in the East China Sea. Only one country, the Gambia in 2013, severed diplomatic relations with Taipei, but has yet to successfully establish ties with Beijing.
Second, Ma addressed the repercussions of the global financial crisis and stepped up efforts to jump-start economic growth for Taiwan. Some results were strong. From the sub-5,000 depths of 2008, the TAIEX has risen to around 9,600 points at the time of writing. Taiwan’s unemployment was reduced to 3.8 percent last year from a 5.9 percent peak in 2009. According to The Economist, real GDP growth, from a slow 0.7 percent in 2008 and a 1.8 percent contraction in 2010, will accelerate to a 3.9 percent growth forecast for this year. This estimate is higher than that for Japan (0.8 percent), South Korea (3.3 percent), Hong Kong (2.4 percent) and Singapore (3.1 percent). Data from the IMF indicate that Taiwan’s income per capita rose to US$22,598 (US$45,854 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms) last year from US$18,103 (US$34,936 in PPP terms) in 2008.
Ma could have done more in promoting social welfare. The government has pursued reforms in labor insurance annuities, subsidies for parental leave, luxury tax, separate taxation for married couples and a 12-year public education program. Yet according to the CIA, Taiwan’s Gini coefficient, which measures economic inequality, has hovered between 0.34 and 0.35 since 2008. The ratio of the average income of the richest 10 percent to the poorest 10 percent stands at 6.3. While Taiwan’s figure is better than China’s 17.6, the US’ 15, and Japan’s 9.18, it is worse than Singapore’s 5.3 and South Korea’s 5.9. Taiwan’s government debt-to-GDP ratio, according to the central bank, has risen from 28.8 percent to a more troubling 41 percent.
Crafting a response to the regional economic integration in Asia has been a key policy focus for the administration. In part, Taiwan successfully negotiated the ECFA with China and reopened discussions on the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement with the US. Taiwan has forged bilateral trade and economic cooperation agreements with Singapore and New Zealand. Efforts to participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and similar trade arrangements are economically significant for Taiwan. If Taiwan is able to join the TPP, it would receive the benefits of a de facto free trade agreement with about 40 percent of the world economy, including the US and Japan.
Finally, 23 million Taiwanese practice self-governance with free, multiparty elections. Democracy offers voters a say in Taiwan’s future, given the competing politics about national identity and priorities. Last year, the Ma administration faced challenges from the student-led Sunflower movement in concluding the cross-strait agreement on trade in services. The KMT also faced major defeats in the local elections of November last year, when many voted against its domestic policies. These are clear signs of democratic vitality in Taiwan.
Indeed, reforms, including the reduction from 37 to 29 Cabinet-level ministries in the executive branch, the creation of six special municipalities to promote regional development and the regulation of gas and electricity prices and national health care premiums mark only the beginning of bolstering the viability of Taiwan’s political system.
Long-standing issues like stagnant wages, food safety, nuclear energy and constitutional revision remain to be resolved, and problems of “unification” and independence, national identity, the rise of populism, high social costs of elections and relativism or nihilism of values continue to underlie Taiwan’s political gridlock. Ma’s popularity never recovered from his poor handling of the 2009 Typhoon Morakot survivors and post-disaster recovery. Some foreign academics and commentators have thus understood the continued unpopularity of the president as a byproduct of social unrest.
The outcome of next year’s presidential election is already clear. At present, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is preparing for her visit to the US. This will be a critical opportunity for Tsai to clarify how she would sustain the “status quo” and peaceful cross-strait relations.
In overcoming her ambiguity regarding the so-called “1992 consensus” as a political basis for future negotiations, Tsai faces the challenge of appealing to both the DPP’s pro-independence base and moderate voters who support continued cross-strait engagement. In this regard, Tsai will have to decide whether to substantively keep or discard Ma’s course.
Alfred Tsai attends Columbia University, where he studies economics and political science.
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