The Occupy Central protest in Hong Kong has been going on for more than seven weeks. A Hong Kong court has ordered the removal of some of the barricades used by the protesters, a move that was followed by a failed attempt by some activists to occupy Hong Kong’s Legislative Council building.
A survey from the University of Hong Kong shows that support for the protests among territory residents has cooled and that two-thirds of respondents said the occupation of streets should be ended. This raises the prospect that the protests will end in failure.
If they do, the goal of universal suffrage will not have been attained, but the action still will have won a preliminary victory, with the Hong Kong Government and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime in Beijing the big losers. Occupy Central mobilized a broad spectrum of society and broke through Hong Kongers’ purported lack of interest in politics. In addition, the scale and duration of the protests and their diversity exceed those of the Sunflower movement protests in Taipei in March and April.
Protesters’ peaceful and nonviolent reactions to the Hong Kong police force’s failed attempts to disperse them with rubber bullets, pepper spray and tear gas won acknowledgment and support from around the world. British arms dealers are set to end sales of tear gas to Hong Kong’s government, while the UN Human Rights Council has called on China to introduce universal suffrage in the territory. It is not only the international community in general that has followed events in Hong Kong; many national leaders, including US President Barack Obama, have also voiced their support.
Occupy Central has also affected Taiwan. In the past, China has wielded its so-called “one country, two systems” policy to rule Hong Kong and in a bid to court Taiwan, but the protest has exposed the lie behind former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s (鄧小平) pledge that life in Hong Kong would go on unchanged for 50 years. It is now even more difficult for Taiwanese to believe any Chinese sweet talk and it has become more difficult for China to annex the nation.
The strategy of the CCP and the Hong Kong government seems to be: “Procrastinate, to break protesters’ morale.” If Occupy Central makes no progress, participants could become anxious or abandon their peaceful approach and turn to violence and revenge. It is also possible that they will be discouraged, making mobilization more difficult next time protests arise. Mobilizing a mass movement around a vision makes sense to the public, but the greatest force is the hope of success. When there is no hope of success, people easily lose the motivation required to continue protesting.
True universal suffrage is in the interest of all Hong Kongers. If the territory could choose its own leaders — and those leaders do not blindly do everything ordered by Zhongnanhai — the local government could deal with needs of the public directly and improve their happiness. This is the significance of Occupy Central. Perhaps one protest is not enough to realize this vision, but the seeds of the next protest need to be planted to pass on the vision and gain the participation of middle-of-the-road supporters and to convert opponents.
The Occupy Central protests have reached a crossroads: The movement might now either become radicalized and raise the conflict level, or choose to end street actions and prepare its next move. This is not defeat; it is a pause to recuperate, regroup and make preparations for the next protest.
Participants must not be discouraged and imagine that they have been defeated; until universal suffrage has been achieved, everyone has to continue to work hard toward that goal.
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