When British Prime Minister Tony Blair first took office, the Tories looked like a dinosaur that had been knocked over, unable to get to its feet no matter how hard it tried.
After Sept. 11, 2001, US President George W. Bush managed to achieve 90 percent support in opinion polls and his authority far exceeded that of any president.
When Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi first took office he seemed like a political messiah, and achieved an unrivaled level of popularity.
But the ways of history are strange and all it took was the Iraq war, and the "butterfly effect" that it caused, to threaten the administrations of three widely scattered governments whose dominance in their own country had seemed unassailable only a short time before. As a result, oppositions that had seemed at death's door were able to revive. If things continue as they are, it is not improbable that we will see a transition of power, sooner or later, which will be a major turning point in all three countries.
Turning to look at the domestic scene, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has experienced a rapid and extreme loss of power that exceeds any of these examples. While the oppositions of the UK, US and Japan are all making headway against entrenched governments, the KMT has lost two presidential elections over the last four years and has no vitality whatsoever.
It has been said that "the rapid failure of the KMT is due to ignorance." The March 20 election proved this point. It proved that the KMT is ignorant about the reality of the current situation, ignorant about the Democratic Progressive Party, ignorant about the use of power, ignorant about the crisis that Taiwan faces and even ignorant about its own identity. Its ignorance has reached a level that is difficult to comprehend.
And what are the KMT leaders doing about this?
Arranging KMT Chairman Lien Chan's (連戰) tour of the nation to thank his supporters? For the KMT, party and country are no longer what they used to be, so there is really nothing to give thanks for. When Master Cheng Yen (證嚴法師) of the Buddhist Compassionate Relief Tzu Chi Foundation talks about gratitude, we feel touched by a cool breeze, but when Lien talks about gratitude, we break into a cold sweat.
What about the pan-blue nominations for the legislative elections? Even a three-year-old child knows that if the pan-blue camp does not act in unison, they will come out the losers in the year-end legislative elections. But how should they unify? Should they merge before the elections? This is impossible, as the senior leadership of the KMT and the People First Party (PFP) both have hidden agendas that make this impossible. Should they form an alliance? The KMT and the PFP are afraid that a third power will emerge and encroach on their power. That the pan-blue camp might emerge victorious in the legislative elections is simply a dream.
Cooperation among senior party leaders? The presidential election happened four months ago and the legislative elections are approaching rapidly, but the senior leaders of the various opposition groups are still doing and saying their own thing. The leaders haven't been able to find the time to sit down together to discuss how to save themselves. With disaster looking them in the face, they are still unable to cooperate. People like these will never be able to form a government.
And then there are still some who are dreaming of a presidential re-election, or are involved in groundless factional struggles. They are racing toward the "end of days" of pan-blue power.
Wang Chien-chuang is president of The Journalist magazine.
TRANSLATED BY Ian Bartholomew
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