Mon, Feb 25, 2002 page8

• Bush's China visit calms Taiwan

  • By Joanne J.L. Chang 裘兆琳
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  US President George W. Bush's visit to Beijing on the 30th anniversary of the Shanghai Com-munique inevitably brought up painful memories of Taiwan's past humiliations. The situation in Beijing may be the same as in the past, but people and the world have changed fundamentally.

  Thirty years ago, Beijing was valuable as an anti-Soviet factor. Today, the Soviet Union is no more and may be substituted by China as the major strategic challenge to the US in the 21st century. Washington and Taipei are ruled by a new generation of young leaders and Beijing is facing the succession of a fourth generation of leaders. Apart from this, the mainstream trend in global politics is freedom and democracy, and China has become one of a minority of remaining communist countries.

  Since 1972, the US has gradually sacrificed the interests of Taiwan in three communiques, hoping for Chinese cooperation in exchange. In the midst of a strengthening economy and military, however, Beijing continues to apply pressure on Taiwan with armed threats and a zero-sum-game attitude, while also maintaining an ambiguous attitude toward the proliferation of nuc-lear weapons and of selling sensitive technologies to countries in the "axis of evil."

  In the wake of the wounds inflicted by the Sept. 11 attacks on the US, the importance of last week's visit by Bush is quite different from that of former president Richard Nixon's ice-breaking visit in 1972.

  Bush's handling of the Taiwan Strait issue displays the following profound changes:

  One, prior to the meeting with Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民), Bush took concrete actions to alleviate Taiwanese concerns. There are reasons for Taipei's concern and unease toward meetings between top-level US and Chinese leaders. The Bush administration fully understands this. In addition to sending the chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, Richard Bush, to Taiwan to emphasize that the US president would not sacrifice the interests of the people of Taiwan during his trip, Bush's speech to the Japanese Diet clearly pointed out that the US will remember its commitment to the people of Taiwan.

  Compare this to 1998, when former president Bill Clinton pronounced the "three nos" in Shanghai, drawing a reaction from the US Congress. Washington hurriedly sent Richard Bush to Taiwan to explain for Clinton, but the damage was already done.

  Two, there is a new interpretation of "one China" and the three communiques. Even though Bush has reiterated the "one China" stance, he did not bring up "one China" and the three communiques during the joint public press conference with Jiang in Beijing. Instead, he said that the US government's view of Taiwan has remained unchanged for many years, that the US believes in the peaceful resolution of this issue, that no party should make any provocative moves and that the US will continue to support the Taiwan Relations Act.

  The repeated pronouncements of this view prior to and during Bush's visit to China warrants further attention by Taiwan.

  Three, the Taiwan issue -- which is the most sensitive issue in the US-China relationship -- must be approached with sincerity and open dialog. With the Shanghai Communique in 1972, Nixon used evasive and roundabout ways to lay the groundwork for the gradual evacuation of US troops stationed in Taiwan and the establishment of diplomatic ties with China.

  Thirty years later, Bush stated that Taiwan is a good Pacific friend of the US and, in his speech to the Japanese Diet, pointed out that the US will support the Philippines, Thailand, South Korea and Japan, and said in public that the US will remember its commitment to the people of Taiwan.

  Bush's goal with last week's trip to China was to obtain Chinese cooperation with the anti-terrorist, human rights and arms-proliferation issues, but the experience of 30 years of contact with China has finally made the US understand that compromises over the Taiwan issue will not solve the differences between the US and China.

  The only way to prevent a Taiwan crisis and to solve the nuclear proliferation problem is to make the leaders in Beijing clearly understand the US resolve to defend the Taiwan Strait and conduct anti-terrorist activities and activities against countries in the "axis of evil."

  Faced with the changing strategic situation at the crossroads of a new century, Taipei should actively explore ways to respond to this new situation.

  Joanne J.L. Chang is a research fellow at the Institute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica.

  Translated by Perry Svensson
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