The party's over, but the guests haven't left, since the end of one election is the beginning of another. While the candidates who were won celebrate and those who were defeated wipe away their tears, senior party leaders are positioning themselves for the election of speaker of the Legislative Yuan.
The DPP's performance in the mayoral and county commissioner elections could have been better, but it enjoyed a clear victory in the legislative elections. The KMT gained slightly in the mayoral and county commissioner elections but suffered a massive loss of legislative seats. The KMT's loss echoed its defeat in last year's presidential election, with the People First Party (PFP) walking away with the mainlander vote, while the "localization" vote was shared between the DPP and the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU).
It was these splits in the vote at both ends that once again made the KMT the bitter loser. The results show that the TSU did not drag the DPP down, but instead effectively restricted the KMT from winning the votes of "localization" supporters. Whatever one's personal feeling about former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), he deserves our respect as a highly skillful political operator.
The changes to the political landscape at the county and city levels will not affect the political situation, but they are significant because despite the domination of the elections by the four superstars -- President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) -- the next generation of politicians surfaced. Even though an unprecedented blow was dealt to the political strength of the KMT, the future political stars at the county and city levels constitute the foundation on which the party will make its comeback. They will also be an important factor in the forging of KMT solidarity.
The legislative elections result show that the DPP's victory was total and that the party's opinion polls had been accurate. Well-planned vote allocation not only guaranteed eight seats in Taipei City, it also ensured home runs in Kaohsiung City and Taipei and Tainan Counties. If we compare the results to media polls, the polls were completely unrealistic, or perhaps they simply doomed candidates who had originally stood a good chance of winning.
Almost all of the KMT candidates who ranked among the highest in pre-election polls were defeated. The top-ranking Ting Shou-chung (丁守中), Tina Pan (潘維剛), Hung Hsing-rong (洪性榮) and Lin Chien-jung (林建榮), for example, lost despite getting a high number of votes. Other incumbants survived only by a hair's breadth.
The same goes for candidates from other parties. Diane Lee (李慶安), Shen Fu-hsiung (沈富雄) and Sisy Chen (陳文茜) did not receive a great number of votes and Shih Ming-teh (施明德), who had ranked third in opinion polls, did not even finish among the top 10. This clearly shows that polls published prior to elections do affect the votes cast by the electorate.
The DPP won 87 seats, which will make it the largest party in the legislature but, even with the 13 seats won by the TSU, it will still not have a majority and must therefore win over legislators from other parties. With the KMT significantly weakened, the DPP can support incumbant speaker Wang Jin-pyng's (王金平) re-election bid in exchange for his and his supporters' backing for a DPP deputy speaker. The KMT's "localization" faction -- to which Wang belongs -- however, took a heavy beating this time and it remains to be seen how many seats it will control.
The PFP greatly increased its number of seats and everyone will be watching the direction in which it will move. As long as the DPP grows stronger, however, the PFP's role in the opposition will also become stronger. Should the PFP unconditionally support the KMT, cooperation between the two will produce a legislative majority.
Apart from Liu Sung-pan (劉松潘), none of the PFP legislators has the ability to serve as speaker. Because Liu has already held that position, the chances of him being willing to accept the post of deputy speaker are slim. Since the PFP does not have anyone else for the post of deputy speaker, it may support the KMT's choice for speaker while also backing a KMT legislator for the deputy speaker's post.
Wang is therefore likely to be the top choice of all three parties for the job. It doesn't matter whether he quietly supports the DPP or the KMT or whether the PFP cooperates, he is likely to retain the job.
The pan-DPP camp has 100 legislative seats. Based on the way the legislative agenda has worked in the past, it will more or less be able to command a majority as long as it can control 95 votes. As long as it can control the leaders in the legislature, it should be able to control the legislative agenda, and there should then be almost nothing to stop Chen from realizing his political goals.
The only way for the DPP to eliminate all obstacles blocking the implementation of its policies will be for it to achieve the cooperation of the opposition and to enhance its ability to mobilize DPP legislators. Although the party will no longer be a minority government, the risk of boycotts from the pan-KMT camp will increase as the DPP becomes stronger.
It would benefit the whole nation if, following accession to the WTO, the parties could hold cross-party negotiations and reach a consensus on the opening of direct links across the Taiwan Strait. Only through negotiations with the opposition can all reviews of bills and budget proposals be guaranteed to be carried out smoothly.
The securing of a legislative majority and the fostering of cooperation instead of resistance are prerequisites to the stabilization of the political situation. Some of the factors affecting the realization of these goals, how-ever, are not within the DPP's control. The DPP must be strong and independent and use forceful, collective discipline to guarantee a consistently high presence in the legislature and then rely on legislative votes to lead and control the agenda.
If the DPP's legislators prove incapable of cooperating to that end, it will be they who will be the obstacles blocking Chen's way. During the first and second legislatures, the KMT held an absolute majority but since the KMT legislators neglected the legislative agenda, it was often impossible to reach a quorum. And the KMT was incapable of limiting the DPP's boycotts. Looking at the performance of DPP legislators during the third and fourth legislatures, a majority chose to focus on building support in their constituencies.
The ability of the DPP to mobilize its party caucus during the fifth legislature has deterio-rated and, if the quality of the legislative agenda is to be improved, the need for an improvement in the way in which party caucuses operate is something that must not be overlooked.
First, the party's factions must no longer take turns leading the party's three legislative sub-groups. Permanent leadership must be used to create legislative leadership.
Second, the party should establish a system of committee chairpersons and allow new legislators to become committee obser-vers at negotiations on legislation, thus training a new generation of specialized legislators.
Third, the party should regularly publish records of legislators' attendance, allowing the media and the electorate to openly monitor the situation.
Fourth, a standard for attendance should be set, making an evaluation based on attendance in the legislature, committees and at major votes and amend the way legislators are nominated so that all are in some way given credit for attending the legislature. This will guarantee that only legislators who diligently participate in the agenda will be nominated, giving them an incentive to attend the meetings regularly.
Fifth, lay down binding regulations and responsibilities for legislators-at-large. Anyone who does not follow caucus directions, or who has not attended several major votes, should be expelled from the party and lose their seat.
With Lien once again defeated and presidency apparently slipping further and further from the KMT's grasp, the party's inquest into its latest loss may lead to a split. A KMT split may lead to a further consolidation of DPP power, but a consolidation of political power built on others' splits is no cause for celebration.
Establishing an "cross-party alliance for national stabilization" in the pursuit of a legislative majority and looking to stabilize the political situation by forging other political alliances are excellent strategies for the ruling party to adopt. I have very high expectations that the DPP will rise to the task and procure high-quality performances from its legislators.
Lee Ching-hsiung is a legislator from the Taiwan Independence Party.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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