Thu, Dec 19, 2002 page8

• Bush must not encourage Jiang

  • By Paul Lin 林保華
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  A flurry of recent Sino-US military exchanges has attracted much attention. Beijing and Washington decided to resume military exchanges during Chinese Vice President Hu Jintao's (胡錦濤) US visit in late April. Two fleets of US warships later anchored off Hong Kong in late August and last month. The US destroyer Paul F. Foster also visited the port of Qingdao late last month.

  The exchanges between high-ranking US and Chinese military officials became even more frequent this month. First, a delegation from China's National Defense University visited Washington, followed by a visit by Deputy Chief of General Staff Xiong Guangkai (熊光楷). Second, Admiral Thomas Fargo, the head of the US Pacific Command, arrived in China last week and visited the sensitive Nanjing Military District of the People's Liberation Army.

  Among these contacts, Xiong's US trip attracted the most attention, as it indicated a resumption of the negotiation mechanism between deputy defense ministers -- a mechanism which had been on hold ever since the EP-3 collision in April last year.

  During his US visit in October, Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) reportedly proposed withdrawing China's coastal missile deployment in exchange for reduced US arms sales to Taiwan. The move prompted concern about whether that proposal was on the agenda of the most recent defense talks.

  During the recent talks, Xiong presented China's defense White Paper to Washington in order to show Beijing's goodwill. Of course, his true intention was to implant the White Paper's perspective in Washington. According to the US, the talks included various issues, from Taiwan to North Korea and Iraq.

  Although the US said China's missile deployment is a threat to regional peace, China did not bring up its proposal to remove missiles aimed at Taiwan. US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice warned Xiong during a meeting that the US cannot accept his 1995 remarks, in which he threatened to launch nuclear missiles at Los Angeles if the US came to the defense of Taipei. According to other sources, Washington believes Jiang's proposition was just propaganda. Besides, US arms sales to Taiwan are carried out in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act.

  One could say that China gained nothing from the recent round of discussions. No doubt Beijing didn't want to propose conditions for an exchange directly to the uncompromising US Department of Defense because any setback would then have made the proposal difficult to peddle. Instead, Beijing sought to influence government policy by setting its sights on Washington's think tanks.

  After the talks, when Xiong had lunch with China specialists from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Brookings Institution, he raised the possibility that China could consider adjusting its missile deployment and also the hope that the US would consider reducing and ultimately halting arms sales to Taipei. Some "old China hands" in the West are easily manipulated by China because of their affinity for the country.

  For 63-year-old Xiong, who is in charge of contacts with the US military, however, the good times are nearly over. He was promoted rapidly in the early 1990s when Jiang was purging Yang Shangkun (楊尚昆) and his half-brother, Yang Baibing (楊白冰). At that time, Jiang was virulently anti-US, so Xiong resorted to nuclear extortion in order to cater to Jiang. As a result, Xiong was promoted to his present job.

  Prior to the Chinese Communist Party's 16th National Congress, there was a rumor that Xiong would become defense minister, but instead he is now in his third term as an alternate member of the Political Bureau. Moreover, his standing among the alternates is very low. Clearly he has fallen from favor. The next time China undertakes important policy-making work regarding Sino-US military relations, Xiong will not play a key role.

  US President George W. Bush sent a congratulatory telegram to Jiang shortly after the conclusion of the National Congress, saying he "treasured" working with Jiang on improving bilateral ties and promoting world peace and prosperity. Moreover, Bush added that he "anticipated further cooperation" with Jiang as the latter continues to serve as chairman of the Central Military Commission.

  According to the clues that have come to light thus far, Jiang achieved his goal of retaining the position of commission chairman by inciting the military to carry out a thinly disguised coup. If Bush appears too fervent in his approval, it will only encourage Jiang to follow the path of Adolf Hitler. In the future, it will be Western countries that bear the terrible consequences.

  It's important to remember that China's 1.3 billion people and enormous resources are manipulated by the Chinese Communist Party. Those factors are exactly what Hitler was lacking.

  Paul Lin is a commentator based in New York.

  TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG AND ETHAN HARKNESS
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