Taiwanese consumers grew more optimistic about the economic outlook and more willing to spend and invest this month, as confidence indicators surged alongside a strengthening stock market and sustained artificial intelligence (AI) driven export momentum, according to a survey released yesterday by Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控).
The monthly survey, which tracks household sentiment and financial expectations, showed broad improvements across perceptions of the economy, income outlook and risk appetite.
The findings come as Taiwan’s official indicators continue to point to steady expansion, supported by resilient external demand and easing geopolitical tensions.
Photo: CNA
Sentiment toward current and future economic conditions improved. The index measuring perceptions of current conditions rose to 32, while the forward-looking outlook index climbed to 25.5, reflecting stronger confidence in near-term economic stability. Income-related sentiment strengthened, with the wage assessment index reaching 18.8 — its highest level on record.
Willingness to make large purchases rose to 21.6, another record high, suggesting households are increasingly prepared to commit to discretionary consumption. However, demand for durable goods — particularly real-estate — remained subdued, slipping by 0.8, indicating continued caution toward long-term household commitments.
Inflation and growth expectations were more nuanced. Many respondents, 59 percent, expect Taiwan’s economic growth in 2026 to exceed 7 percent, while 58 percent believe inflation would surpass the central bank’s 2 percent target.
By comparison, the government’s projections stand at 9.64 percent growth and 1.93 percent inflation, suggesting households are slightly more conservative on growth but more concerned about price pressures.
Equity market sentiment strengthened sharply. Optimism toward Taiwan’s stock market rose to 54.5, while risk appetite climbed to 40.6, setting new highs. The survey attributed the improvement to easing geopolitical tensions, including a ceasefire between the US and Iran and the start of negotiations, as well as continued AI-driven capital expenditure from major US cloud service providers, which has supported global technology demand and Taiwan’s equity performance.
Investor behavior is increasingly shifting toward exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the survey found, reflecting broader participation in equity markets.
About 26 percent of respondents said they invest solely in passive ETFs, while 24 percent hold active and passive products and 19 percent invest only in active ETFs, the survey said.
The majority — 54 percent — said their primary motivation is long-term wealth accumulation, followed by dividend income and portfolio diversification.
Looking ahead, half of respondents said they intend to hold Taiwan’s ETFs for more than one year, while 18 percent plan to maintain current positions and 13 percent expect to trade within a year.
AI remains the dominant perceived driver of market performance, with 54 percent of respondents identifying AI industry development as the most important factor influencing ETF returns over the next year. Corporate earnings, macroeconomic conditions, global equity trends and risk sentiment were cited as key influences.
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