Taiwanese consumer confidence improved modestly this month, supported by a stable economic outlook and rising optimism toward local equities, although concerns over inflation and a sluggish housing market continued to weigh on sentiment, a survey released yesterday by Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) showed.
The improvement followed official data showing steady economic momentum.
The government’s business climate monitor for November remained in the “yellow-red” range, indicating stable growth.
Photo: Lin Cheng-kun, Taipei Times
Both leading and coincident indicators continued to rise, suggesting the economy remains on a firm footing despite global uncertainties, Cathay Financial said.
The survey showed the index measuring optimism about current economic conditions rose to 2.0, while the outlook optimism index climbed to minus-0.1, approaching neutral territory. The figures suggest that consumer pessimism has eased, although confidence has yet to turn decisively positive.
Willingness to spend also improved. The index tracking intentions to make large purchases increased to 11.7, while plans to buy durable goods improved to minus-9.6.
The improvement reflected greater confidence in income stability and employment conditions, Cathay Financial said.
However, housing sentiment remained weak. The home-buying intention index fell to minus-42.2, highlighting persistent caution among prospective buyers, while the home-selling intention index edged up slightly to minus-33.5, suggesting limited improvement on the supply side.
The subdued housing outlook followed the central bank’s decision last month to allow only limited flexibility in mortgage supervision while keeping tight credit controls intact, as authorities seek to curb property loan concentration.
Respondents were more conservative than official forecasts on economic growth and maintained higher inflation expectations, expecting a GDP growth of 3.06 percent and inflation rate of 2.17 percent, the survey found.
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics in November last year projected GDP growth of 3.54 percent for this year, with inflation of 1.61 percent.
Equity market sentiment was notably upbeat. Respondents expect the local board to benefit from the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut last month and continued strength in corporate earnings driven by a global artificial intelligence boom.
The stock market confidence index rose to 37, while the risk appetite index climbed to 23.9, both near record highs, the survey showed.
Nearly half of respondents expect the TAIEX to stay above 30,000 points in the first half of this year, with 32 percent forecasting a peak between 30,000 and 31,000 points, while 17 percent expect the index to surpass 31,000 points.
The findings were based on an online survey of 14,917 respondents from Jan. 1 to 7, providing a snapshot of household sentiment as Taiwan enters this year with steady growth, but uneven confidence across sectors, Cathay Financial said.
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