China’s exports slowed last month and imports declined, falling below forecasts and underscoring potential weakness in trade at a time when its leaders are striving to boost the economy after the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Customs data yesterday showed exports grew 6.7 percent from a year earlier, down from a 12.7 percent increase in October. Analysts had estimated that exports had risen more than 8 percent.
Imports fell 3.9 percent from a year earlier, reflecting weak demand from industries and consumers.
Photo: AFP
With exports outpacing imports, China’s trade surplus rose to US$97.4 billion.
The report came a day after Beijing pledged to loosen monetary policy and provide more support for the world’s No. 2 economy.
US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened to slap tariffs of 60 percent or more on imports of Chinese goods, complicating Beijing’s efforts by threatening an area of the economy that has performed relatively well, while the property sector remains in the doldrums and consumer spending remains fragile.
Some analysts say that the latest setbacks are likely to be temporary.
“We expect exports to accelerate again in the coming months, supported by gains in export competitiveness and exporters front-running tariffs,” Capital Economics economist Huang Zichun (黃子春) said in a note.
“Import volumes declined last month, but they are likely to recover in the short run, as accelerated fiscal spending boosts demand for industrial commodities,” she said.
The effects of tariffs would likely only be felt in the middle of next year, Huang added.
Exports to the US grew 8 percent last month compared with the same period last year, while outbound goods to the EU rose 7.2 percent.
However, shipments to Russia fell 2.6 percent year-on-year compared with October, when exports to Russia rose 27 percent. The decline comes several months after the US imposed secondary sanctions on goods deemed to support Russia’s military operations, including some Chinese firms that the US accused of helping Moscow circumvent sanctions.
Exports of aluminum surged 37 percent to 668,940 tonnes last month as exporters rushed to benefit from tax discounts that were canceled from the start of this month.
That volume has only been surpassed once before, in May 2022, when the global aluminum market faced deep disruption in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Beijing last month announced it would withdraw a tax rebate of 13 percent that for years has helped juice overseas sales of aluminum. Export rebates were also removed or reduced from Dec. 1 for a range of goods, including copper and some oil products, in a move that was seen as an attempt to tackle domestic overcapacity and excessive competition in those sectors.
Meanwhile, the boom in China’s steel exports showed signs of cooling, with volumes plunging by about one-fifth from October to 9.28 million tonnes last month, customs data showed.
Additional reporting by Bloomberg
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