The economy last quarter expanded 5.09 percent annually, missing the government’s May forecast by 0.09 percentage points, as exports did not fare as well as expected, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said yesterday.
Exports of goods and services grew 7.87 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, 3.35 percentage points less than the agency’s May estimate, DGBAS official Wang Tsui-hua (王翠華) said.
The data suggested that GDP growth for the whole of this year could be 3.91 percent, less than the 3.94 percent previously projected if other categories hold steady, she said.
Photo: CNA
The DGBAS is to provide an official update later this month.
On a positive note, outbound shipments grew 9.91 percent in US dollar terms, propelled by robust global demand for electronics used in high-performance computing, artificial intelligence (AI), smartphones, laptops, wearables and vehicles, the DGBAS said.
In all, net exports turned negative for the first time in a year and took out 0.39 percentage points from second-quarter GDP growth after factoring in a faster 10.62 percent gain in imports, Wang said.
Capital formation, the main drag on growth over the past few years, posted a robust 15.34 percent increase, beating the forecast by 10.49 percentage points and adding 3.87 percentage points to GDP, Wang said.
The impressive results came after imports of capital equipment rose 15.92 percent, the best performance in 11 quarters, as local firms bought machinery equipment to upgrade and expand their facilities to meet customer demand, Wang said, citing chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (台積電) and chip tester ASE Technology Holding Co (日月光投控) as examples.
Private consumption rose 2.71 percent due to wage hikes and rallies on the TAIEX, among other things, the DGBAS said.
Separately, Academia Sinica projected GDP growth of 3.88 percent for this year, which was more conservative than the DGBAS’ estimate, but was up 0.86 percentage points from its previous forecast.
The upward revision was due to robust exports amid growing demand for advanced technologies such as high-performance computing and AI, said Lin Chang-ching (林長青), an adjunct research fellow with Academia Sinica’s Institute of Economics.
The institute projected a 2.62 percent increase in private consumption for this year based on a stable job market, active stock market trading, and robust cross-border and business travel.
However, typhoons, salary increases in the public sector, and rising electricity and housing costs could all contribute to inflationary pressures, leading the institute to predict a 2.21 percent increase in consumer prices for this year.
The institute called on the government to monitor inflationary pressures.
An internal survey conducted by Academia Sinica found that 64 percent of Taiwanese expect their cost of living to increase from last year.
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