Global coal consumption is set to rise to an all-time high this year and remain at similar levels in the next few years if stronger efforts are not made to move to a low-carbon economy, a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday.
High gas prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and consequent disruptions to supply have led some countries to turn to relatively cheaper coal, while heat waves and droughts in some regions have also driven up electricity demand and reduced hydropower. Nuclear generation has also been very weak, especially in Europe, where France had to shut down nuclear reactors for maintenance.
The annual report on coal forecasts that global coal use is to rise 1.2 percent this year, exceeding 8 billion tonnes in a single year for the first time and a previous record set in 2013.
Photo: Reuters
It also predicts that coal consumption would remain flat at that level to 2025, as falls in mature markets are offset by continued strong demand in emerging Asian economies.
This means coal would continue to be the global energy system’s largest single source of carbon emissions.
The largest increase in coal demand is expected to be in India, at 7 percent, followed by the EU at 6 percent and China at 0.4 percent.
Photo: AFP
“The world is close to a peak in fossil fuel use, with coal set to be the first to decline, but we are not there yet,” IEA energy markets and security director Keisuke Sadamori said.
Europe’s coal demand has risen due to more switching from gas to coal due to high gas prices and as Russian gas has reduced to a trickle.
However, by 2025 European coal demand is expected to decline below this year’s level, the report said.
Global coal-fired power generation is set to rise to a new record of about 10.3 terawatt hours this year, while coal production is forecast to rise 5.4 percent to about 8.3 billion tonnes, also an all-time high.
Production is expected to reach a peak next year, but by 2025 it should fall to below this year’s level.
The three largest coal producers — China, India and Indonesia — would this year hit production records, but despite high prices and comfortable margins for coal producers, there is no sign of surging investment in export-driven coal projects.
This reflects caution among investors and mining companies about the medium and longer-term prospects for coal, the report said.
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