Exports last month likely remained negative with a 2 percent decline from the same period a year earlier as the COVID-19 pandemic hurt non-tech sectors, despite gains in tech product shipments, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said yesterday.
The forecast was better than the market consensus of a 4.8 percent drop and the Ministry of Finance’s prediction of a 4 to 6 percent retreat.
The ministry is to release trade data for last month on Monday.
Whatever the final figures, all projections suggest further deterioration from April’s 1.3 percent decline, as the global economy continued to reel from the effects of the pandemic.
ANZ said it expects imports to fare better with a 0.5 percent increase from a year earlier, giving Taiwan a trade balance of US$3.8 billion.
Export volume is larger than for imports, it said.
Global lockdowns to combat the virus have reduced travel and the flow of goods, but Taiwan’s tech companies have benefited from a surge in demand for data centers, laptops, tablets and other devices used in remote learning and work-from-home arrangements.
In addition, tech firms continue to thrive on 5G deployment by global technology titans.
Export orders, an indicator of activity in one to three months, increased 2.3 percent year-on-year to US$38.53 billion last month, thanks to robust demand for information and communications technology products, said the Ministry of Economic Affairs, which had forecast a retreat.
Front-loading of orders among Chinese customers likely accounted for the strong performance, ANZ said.
China’s Huawei Technologies Co (華為) is reportedly stockpiling high-performance chips to ward off supply disruptions after Washington imposed new restrictions on it for such purchases involving US equipment and technology.
The pandemic’s effects and order front-loading have rendered traditional seasonality a less reliable guide for predicting manufacturing activity.
However, weakness in traditional sectors — such as manufacturers of raw materials — could weigh on overall exports, ANZ said.
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