UNITED KINGDOM
Moody’s raises EU issue
An early referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU carries risks that could threaten its credit rating, according to Moody’s Investors Service. While a vote next year would reduce the period of uncertainty surrounding the issue, it also “increases the risk that the UK government will not manage to secure the changes that it is seeking, which in turn may negatively influence the government’s willingness to support remaining in the EU,” Moody’s said yesterday. “A withdrawal from the EU would have negative implications for the UK’s growth prospects and — in the absence of an alternative trade arrangement with the EU that at least partly replicates the current access to the EU’s single market — would likely put pressure on the UK’s sovereign rating.”
MACROECONOMICS
German trade surplus rises
Germany’s trade surplus widened in April from the previous month as exports grew 1.9 percent, official data showed yesterday. At the same time imports fell by 1.3 percent, pushing the trade surplus up to 22.3 billion euros (US$24.8 billion) in April, according to seasonally adjusted figures published by the federal statistics office, Destatis. In unadjusted terms, the trade surplus contracted slightly from March to 22.1 billion euros. On a year-to-year comparison, exports from Europe’s top economy to non-European countries increased by nearly 12 percent in April, while imports grew about five percent. Its export and import flows with other European nations were also up, by 4.5 percent and 1.7 percent respectively, with the biggest jumps seen with non-eurozone members.
ACQUISITIONS
IRM increases Recall bid
Iron Mountain Inc (IRM) increased its bid for Recall Holdings Ltd a second time, adding a cash component to a deal that would value the data storage company at A$3.4 billion (US$2.6 billion) including debt. The Boston-based company would offer US$0.50 in addition to 0.1722 Iron Mountain shares for each Recall share, it said in a statement yesterday. Recall investors would also have a choice of accepting A$8.50 per share in cash, subject to a cap of A$225 million, with preferential access to the cash pool for the first 5,000 shares owned by each shareholder. Recall had been seeking improved terms after a fall in Iron Mountain’s shares cut the value of its offer for the Atlanta-based company, people with knowledge of the matter said last week. Iron Mountain offered investors the same equity ratio, which was equal to about A$7.86 when the takeover was announced on April 28, after its original bid was rejected in December last year.
STOCKS
Japan wins investors
While China’s world-beating stock market rally is generating headlines, some of the biggest Asia-focused hedge funds are looking further east for profits. Hutchin Hill, Indus Capital Partners and Oasis Management (Hong Kong) are among firms touting winning trades among Japanese power producers, makers of foods and beverages and semiconductor parts. A push by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to improve corporate governance has made the market a favorite of hedge funds at the same time as fears that Chinese markets are entering bubble territory mount, following gains of as much as 150 percent in the country’s two best-performing stock market indices during the past year. “Global investors are increasingly viewing the country favorably,” Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Hong Kong-based analyst Ben Williams said.
The US dollar was trading at NT$29.7 at 10am today on the Taipei Foreign Exchange, as the New Taiwan dollar gained NT$1.364 from the previous close last week. The NT dollar continued to rise today, after surging 3.07 percent on Friday. After opening at NT$30.91, the NT dollar gained more than NT$1 in just 15 minutes, briefly passing the NT$30 mark. Before the US Department of the Treasury's semi-annual currency report came out, expectations that the NT dollar would keep rising were already building. The NT dollar on Friday closed at NT$31.064, up by NT$0.953 — a 3.07 percent single-day gain. Today,
‘SHORT TERM’: The local currency would likely remain strong in the near term, driven by anticipated US trade pressure, capital inflows and expectations of a US Fed rate cut The US dollar is expected to fall below NT$30 in the near term, as traders anticipate increased pressure from Washington for Taiwan to allow the New Taiwan dollar to appreciate, Cathay United Bank (國泰世華銀行) chief economist Lin Chi-chao (林啟超) said. Following a sharp drop in the greenback against the NT dollar on Friday, Lin told the Central News Agency that the local currency is likely to remain strong in the short term, driven in part by market psychology surrounding anticipated US policy pressure. On Friday, the US dollar fell NT$0.953, or 3.07 percent, closing at NT$31.064 — its lowest level since Jan.
Hong Kong authorities ramped up sales of the local dollar as the greenback’s slide threatened the foreign-exchange peg. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) sold a record HK$60.5 billion (US$7.8 billion) of the city’s currency, according to an alert sent on its Bloomberg page yesterday in Asia, after it tested the upper end of its trading band. That added to the HK$56.1 billion of sales versus the greenback since Friday. The rapid intervention signals efforts from the city’s authorities to limit the local currency’s moves within its HK$7.75 to HK$7.85 per US dollar trading band. Heavy sales of the local dollar by
The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) yesterday met with some of the nation’s largest insurance companies as a skyrocketing New Taiwan dollar piles pressure on their hundreds of billions of dollars in US bond investments. The commission has asked some life insurance firms, among the biggest Asian holders of US debt, to discuss how the rapidly strengthening NT dollar has impacted their operations, people familiar with the matter said. The meeting took place as the NT dollar jumped as much as 5 percent yesterday, its biggest intraday gain in more than three decades. The local currency surged as exporters rushed to