The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday revised downward its forecast for Taiwan’s economic growth next year to 3.59 percent from the forecast of 4.29 percent it made in July.
The Taipei-based think tank also cut its GDP growth forecast for the nation this year from the 2.36 percent it forecast in July to 1.52 percent, the fifth straight time it had revised downward the forecast since July last year.
“Under the current conditions, the nation’s economy should have bottomed out in the third quarter, with the momentum likely to rebound in the fourth quarter,” CIER president Wu Chung-shu (吳中書) said at a press conference.
The institute’s quarterly report showed GDP may rise 1.42 percent in the third quarter, followed by a 4.26 percent expansion in the fourth quarter.
As for next year, the think tank expected the economy to be more balanced, with the contribution from domestic demand strengthening compared with that from external demand.
Taipei-based Standard Chartered Bank economist Tony Phoo (符銘財), who also attended the press conference, said the retail industry may be the major driver boosting domestic demand-related sectors next year.
Phoo added that domestic demand driven by the retail industry would likely contribute significantly to the nation’s economy next year.
Retail industry sales usually account for less than 40 percent of the nation’s exports, but have been climbing to more than 40 percent over the past two years, reflecting the strong performance of the industry, Phoo said.
Phoo added that the continuously strong performance of the tourism sector could in turn help boost sales in the retail industry.
The institute’s forecast for next year was generally in line with Phoo’s views.
In the next year, the retail industry is expected to post about NT$4 trillion (US$136.57 billion) in sales, with exports set to stand at about US$320 billion, its data showed.
The think tank forecast private consumption would rise 2.76 percent next year, up from the 2.12 percent growth recorded this year, the report said.
Private investment is expected to climb 6 percent next year, compared with a 2.11 percent contraction this year, the report said.
As for the external sector, the institute estimated exports would grow 6.44 percent next year, from the 1.09 percent drop this year, it said.
On the inflation front, the research institute expected the nation’s consumer price index (CPI) to show 1.97 percent growth this year and further exhibit a 1.59 percent expansion next year, both lower than the 2 percent critical mark.
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics will update its latest forecast on the nation’s economy and headline inflation on Oct. 31.
In August, the agency estimated GDP would grow 1.66 percent this year, with the headline inflation index expected to rise by 1.93 percent.
The Eurovision Song Contest has seen a surge in punter interest at the bookmakers, becoming a major betting event, experts said ahead of last night’s giant glamfest in Basel. “Eurovision has quietly become one of the biggest betting events of the year,” said Tomi Huttunen, senior manager of the Online Computer Finland (OCS) betting and casino platform. Betting sites have long been used to gauge which way voters might be leaning ahead of the world’s biggest televised live music event. However, bookmakers highlight a huge increase in engagement in recent years — and this year in particular. “We’ve already passed 2023’s total activity and
Nvidia Corp CEO Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) today announced that his company has selected "Beitou Shilin" in Taipei for its new Taiwan office, called Nvidia Constellation, putting an end to months of speculation. Industry sources have said that the tech giant has been eyeing the Beitou Shilin Science Park as the site of its new overseas headquarters, and speculated that the new headquarters would be built on two plots of land designated as "T17" and "T18," which span 3.89 hectares in the park. "I think it's time for us to reveal one of the largest products we've ever built," Huang said near the
China yesterday announced anti-dumping duties as high as 74.9 percent on imports of polyoxymethylene (POM) copolymers, a type of engineering plastic, from Taiwan, the US, the EU and Japan. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s findings conclude a probe launched in May last year, shortly after the US sharply increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, computer chips and other imports. POM copolymers can partially replace metals such as copper and zinc, and have various applications, including in auto parts, electronics and medical equipment, the Chinese ministry has said. In January, it said initial investigations had determined that dumping was taking place, and implemented preliminary
Intel Corp yesterday reinforced its determination to strengthen its partnerships with Taiwan’s ecosystem partners including original-electronic-manufacturing (OEM) companies such as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密) and chipmaker United Microelectronics Corp (UMC, 聯電). “Tonight marks a new beginning. We renew our new partnership with Taiwan ecosystem,” Intel new chief executive officer Tan Lip-bu (陳立武) said at a dinner with representatives from the company’s local partners, celebrating the 40th anniversary of the US chip giant’s presence in Taiwan. Tan took the reins at Intel six weeks ago aiming to reform the chipmaker and revive its past glory. This is the first time Tan
RSS