Taipei Times: What is your view on the DRAM industry in the second half of this year?
David Sun (孫大衛): Prospects for the DRAM industry are looking good, if the market situation stays normal. The use of DRAM is expanding from PCs to a lot of new products such as mobile phones, videos and servers.
And supply is limited. Most DRAM companies are migrating to next-generation technologies, which will take time to churn out the massive output.
PHOTO: CNA
I believe supply will match demand, or will even be less than demand. Most companies should be able to generate cash and make profits.
TT: What is your take on growing capital spending from DRAM companies, especially Samsung Electronics of South Korea this year? Samsung said last month it intends to spend a total of 18 trillion won (US$15.84 billion) in capital spending this year, of which 9 trillion won would be spent on memory business.
Sun: Samsung produces a variety of products. I do not think it will bet the money solely on DRAM. And there is the risk of breaking anti-trust rules if Samsung greatly expands capacity to boost market share over 50 percent.
With so big a market share, I do not expect Samsung to wage a price war to force marginal players out of the market at the expense of losing big money. I believe Samsung sees the business potential.
TT: Do you think the benchmark DDR3 DRAM price will fall below US$2.5 per unit?
Sun: Frankly, DRAM companies should feel pressure to reduce prices as supply is exceeding demand. But, I don’t expect the spot price of DDR3 will fall to less than US$2.5 per unit in the short term, as PC makers eventually have to increase memory space on computers [along with sales of new operating systems, or software later this year].
TT: Will the 30 percent salary hike planned by Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密), which owns Foxconn in China, for its Chinese employees, following a series of suicides, make you rethink future factory expansion in China?
Sun: We have two factories in Shangahi and Shenzhen. We employ over 2,000 workers there. I think the cost of labor is still lower there than in Taiwan, even after the 30 percent hike in monthly wages.
But we are very cautious about capacity expansion across the strait. We don’t expand capacity aggressively. Our strategy is outsourcing half our manufacturing to other companies in China and Taiwan, meaning that we will increase outsourcing to cope with growing business.
Kingston operates a factory in Hsinchu, where we employ about 800 people, including a sales marketing department.
TT: Kingston has been making money every year since its inception 23 years ago and generated US$2.46 billion in revenues last year [based on DRAMeXchange Technology Inc's (集邦科技) tally] with a small number of staff — just 3,800 in total. What is the secret behind this?
Sun: Making memory modules is a very simple business. The key is how to manage variables in the memory industry. We are a small company, which allows us to make decisions fast and with greater flexibility than big conglomerates.
Besides, managing the supply chain is also important. Kingston ships 30 million memory units a day to 30 countries and 97 percent of them are produced on the same day. We almost have no inventory at all.
Operating efficiency is also important. We can churn out 30 percent more high-quality output than our competitors on the same machine.
What makes this happen? Good employee understanding is essential. Most of our employees have been working with the company for over 10 years and they are willing to do good things for the company.
We do not have a strict appraisal system to manage the company as most companies do. We even have to educate our employees that they do not have to make more money than last year.
The US dollar was trading at NT$29.7 at 10am today on the Taipei Foreign Exchange, as the New Taiwan dollar gained NT$1.364 from the previous close last week. The NT dollar continued to rise today, after surging 3.07 percent on Friday. After opening at NT$30.91, the NT dollar gained more than NT$1 in just 15 minutes, briefly passing the NT$30 mark. Before the US Department of the Treasury's semi-annual currency report came out, expectations that the NT dollar would keep rising were already building. The NT dollar on Friday closed at NT$31.064, up by NT$0.953 — a 3.07 percent single-day gain. Today,
‘SHORT TERM’: The local currency would likely remain strong in the near term, driven by anticipated US trade pressure, capital inflows and expectations of a US Fed rate cut The US dollar is expected to fall below NT$30 in the near term, as traders anticipate increased pressure from Washington for Taiwan to allow the New Taiwan dollar to appreciate, Cathay United Bank (國泰世華銀行) chief economist Lin Chi-chao (林啟超) said. Following a sharp drop in the greenback against the NT dollar on Friday, Lin told the Central News Agency that the local currency is likely to remain strong in the short term, driven in part by market psychology surrounding anticipated US policy pressure. On Friday, the US dollar fell NT$0.953, or 3.07 percent, closing at NT$31.064 — its lowest level since Jan.
The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) yesterday met with some of the nation’s largest insurance companies as a skyrocketing New Taiwan dollar piles pressure on their hundreds of billions of dollars in US bond investments. The commission has asked some life insurance firms, among the biggest Asian holders of US debt, to discuss how the rapidly strengthening NT dollar has impacted their operations, people familiar with the matter said. The meeting took place as the NT dollar jumped as much as 5 percent yesterday, its biggest intraday gain in more than three decades. The local currency surged as exporters rushed to
PRESSURE EXPECTED: The appreciation of the NT dollar reflected expectations that Washington would press Taiwan to boost its currency against the US dollar, dealers said Taiwan’s export-oriented semiconductor and auto part manufacturers are expecting their margins to be affected by large foreign exchange losses as the New Taiwan dollar continued to appreciate sharply against the US dollar yesterday. Among major semiconductor manufacturers, ASE Technology Holding Co (日月光), the world’s largest integrated circuit (IC) packaging and testing services provider, said that whenever the NT dollar rises NT$1 against the greenback, its gross margin is cut by about 1.5 percent. The NT dollar traded as strong as NT$29.59 per US dollar before trimming gains to close NT$0.919, or 2.96 percent, higher at NT$30.145 yesterday in Taipei trading