Global flat panel sales are forecast to grow at a slower pace from this year through 2015 as retail and corporate buyers cut back on spending amid the worldwide economic gloom, market researcher DisplaySearch said in its latest report.
In its latest forecast, the Austin, Texas-based researcher said global flat panel revenues may reach US$124 billion in 2014 — instead of this year as it had projected in the third quarter of 2007.
Since the third quarter of last year, panel pricing, which has already been hit with a supply glut because of overcapacity, fell further as consumer behavior changed in response to the economic crisis, DisplaySearch said in the report dated Jan. 27.
Consumer surveys and retail data compiled by NPD, DisplaySearch’s parent company, showed that such behavioral changes may persist. Moreover, the behavior change is spreading to areas outside of Europe and North America.
With panel prices falling at a faster rate amid weakening demand, DisplaySearch cut its forecast for flat panel revenues between this year and 2015 by 15 percent from the projections it made in the final quarter of 2007. It did not provide detailed figures.
“Reduced price expectations create most of this difference,” David Barnes, DisplaySearch’s vice president of strategic analysis, said in the report.
Over the seven-year period, the average price of flat panels may drop 9 percent faster than its previous forecast, the report said.
The average price fell to about US$29 last year and could drop about 2 percent a year to US$25 in 2015, DisplaySearch said.
In a separate report, DisplaySearch said computer and TV revenues plunged 57 percent year-on-year to US$3 billion last month, marking the lowest level since July 2006.
DisplaySearch also found that panel demand weakened significantly in all three of the major applications for thin-film-transitor liquid-crytal displays (LCD) — notebook PCs, monitors and televisions — and panel suppliers had reduced capacity utilization.
Monitor panel shipments posted the largest fall, by 31 percent year-on-year to 10.7 million units last month, which is the lowest level since June 2006.
A combination of slow demand, leading brands relying more on in-house production and the sharp depreciation of the Korean won adversely affected Taiwanese panel suppliers, leading to loss of market share.
At the end of last year, Taiwanese LCD panel makers held about 35 percent of the market, down from 43 percent last July, while South Korean makers gained market share to 52.1 percent from 43.9 percent, DisplaySearch’s tally showed.
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