The nation’s economy flashed a “yellow-blue” light last month, signaling an economic slowdown despite exports’ robust showing, the Council for Economic Planning and Development said yesterday.
This was the fourth consecutive month the economic indicators shifted downward owing to sluggish private consumption, council officials said.
“The business climate signal turned yellow-blue last month, from a blue light [signaling recession] in July,” Hung Jui-bin (洪瑞彬), director-general of the council’s economic research department, told a media briefing.
Huang said he could not interpret the shift as an improvement since most indicators continued to head down.
The composite leading index stood at 107.5 points last month, down 0.3 percent from July, while the trend-adjusted coincident index dropped 0.9 percent to 109.3 points, Hung said.
The figures reflected downside risks in economic growth, though the indices of customs-cleared exports, industrial production and stock prices gained 1 point each, the economic official said.
Exports, the main driver of the nation’s economic growth, advanced 18.4 percent year-on-year last month, compared with an 8 percent growth a month earlier.
Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙), an economic analyst at the council, said the stock price index remained in negative territory though the decline eased slightly from July.
Wu said most of the coincident indicators trended downward, led by the large decline in electricity consumption, manufacturing sales and sales index for retail, wholesale and food services.
Looking ahead, Hung said private consumption would be a tough challenge to the government’s efforts to boost the economy as the public continues to shun spending although inflationary pressures have eased significantly.
“Hopefully, the series of economic stimulus measures can reverse the trend in the coming months,” Hung said.
Day Jaw-yang (戴肇洋), a research director at Taiwan Research Institute (台綜院), was not as optimistic.
Day said he could not spot any silver lining in the months ahead given the turmoil in financial markets at home and abroad.
“It will be a blessing if the nation can avoid a further slowdown,” Day said by telephone.
Norman Yin (殷乃平), a money and banking professor at National Chengchi University, agreed.
Citing government statistics, Yin forecast exports would slow in the fourth quarter in light of falling orders from China, the nation’s largest trade partner.
Growth in Taiwan’s export orders slowed to a single digit for a third consecutive month last month as demand from China weakened, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said on Tuesday.
Export orders rose 5.38 percent year-on-year to US$32.13 billion last month, with orders from China and Hong Kong declining 8.86 percent, the ministry said.
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