Fri, Jul 21, 2000 page5

• US underestimates China's threat

  ASIA POWER BALANCE Analysts warned that the US should take China's territorial ambitions in Asia seriously and argued for weapons sales to Taiwan

  • By Nadia Tsao / STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
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  China experts told the House Armed Serices Committee on Wednesday that the US should not underestimate the capacity and willingness of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) to prevent American intervention in regional crises.

  The warning appears to fly in the face of the Clinton Administration's argument that the technological level of China's defense industry is far behind that of the US and comes at a time when the Senate is preparing to vote on granting China Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR).

  China's recent transfer of missile technology to Pakistan and the deal on the Phalcon early warning system it tried to make with Israel -- that was later cancelled -- have contributed to a growing wariness on Capitol Hill of the potential danger posed by China.

  Yesterday's warning came just a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Jiang Zemin jointly denounced what they see as US attempts to dominate the world order, and agreed to stand together against American power.

  Congressman Floyd Spence, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee said during the hearing on China's military capability that the administration's latest report to Congress on Chinese military capacity acknowledged that China sought to become the pre-eminent regional power in East Asia.

  "However, the administration appears to take a more forgiving view of China's military potential ... and the challenges it poses to US security interests than I believe is warranted," Spence said.

  He emphasized that China's military threats, and its buildup of ballistic missiles arrayed against Taiwan, "should be taken seriously."

  Though there is robust opposition from China against the US National Missile Defense program, the short-term flash point worries US lawmakers and observers in Taiwan.

  "The PRC is not today the enemy of the United States, but the PRC's territorial and political ambitions in Asia, and resources it is devoting to building its PLA into an advanced fighting force, dictate that the US exercise great caution," said Richard Fisher a fellow of the Jamestown Foundation think tank.

  The foundation argues that there is enough evidence to conclude that the PLA is rapidly shifting the balance of power on the Taiwan Strait, and laying the foundation for greater power projection in the next decade and beyond.

  Fisher pointed out that there were already 400 ballistic missiles in the area opposite Taiwan, and it was reasonable to estimate that the PLA could have 1000 or more ballistic and cruise missiles aimed at Taiwan by the end of this decade, a number exceeding previous US estimates.

  "Today Taiwan has sufficient strength to deter a PLA attack, but that may not last for long," stated Fisher saying that the danger lay in the absence of sales by the US of defensive weaponry to Taiwan."

  He urged the US government to sell submarines and other advanced weapons to Taiwan.

  Fisher's arguments received support from June Teufel Dreyer, professor at the University of Miami. She told the committee that "the administration has sought to deny or minimize the import of indications that the government of the PRC is making steady advances in the modernization of its military and regards the US as its enemy."

  She indicated that although there was no certainty that the PRC would become a major power in the foreseeable future, that Chinese threats on matters of sovereignty and irredentism must nonetheless be taken seriously, she said.

  Dreyer criticized the recent Pentagon report to Congress for its assumption that all fourth-generation fighter planes in Taiwan were equal. She said that 130 of Taiwan's 400 planes were Indigenous Defense Fighters whose abbreviation, IDF, had been rendered "I Don't Fly" by the Taiwanese themselves because of problems with the aircraft.

  Bates Gill, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institute, argued that improved missile capabilities answered a number of questions for Chinese forces both with regard to a Taiwan scenario, and with regard to improving their nuclear weapons capabilities.

  "China appears to be devoting increased resources not to an invasion scenario, but to an intimidation and perhaps an area denial strategy," he said.

  Gill stated that the US should continue to equip Taiwan to defend itself against potential Chinese coercion, especially with regard to possible missile attacks.

  "Providing lower-tier, land-based missile defenses to Taiwan is entirely appropriate," he said, adding, however that,"other follow-on sales of more capable missile defenses should await further study of their diplomatic and military-technical implications."
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