The Thai baht, which was battered by massive flight of capital in the 1997 Asian financial crisis, is again facing mounting pressure -- this time from large money inflows into the kingdom.
Since early this month, the Thai currency has remained at 10-year highs against the US dollar with investors pouring money into the stock market, where share prices have gained nearly 30 percent since the beginning of this year.
The strong baht has alarmed the army-backed government as it put pressure on the kingdom's export-driven economy, which was already in a slump due to political uncertainty following last September's coup.
Large money inflows also brought back bitter memories of the crisis 10 years ago when the kingdom was forced to float the baht after coming under massive speculative pressure.
Capital had poured into Thailand during the breakneck economic growth of the early 1990s, but investors began to fear the baht was overvalued and pulled their money out.
As large amounts of capital fled out of Thailand in 1997, the baht collapsed, setting off a chain of Asian currency devaluations that crippled economies from South Korea to Indonesia.
Last week Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn cautioned against current capital inflows, saying there was "contingent liability that the current inflows could become outflows if the stock market starts to decline."
"That's the kind of situation we should be aware of to make sure that our international reserves are enough," he said.
Analysts have warned against the dangers of large capital inflows but argued Thailand would unlikely repeat the 1997 crisis thanks to its solid economic fundamentals, including robust exports.
"The risk of large capital inflows and outflows is always there in an emerging market like Thailand," said Albin Liew, a senior economist at United Overseas Bank in Singapore. "But Thailand is not in a situation like '97 because its economic fundamentals are steady, the financial sector is strong, and it has strong current account surpluses."
Huang Yiping (
But the Citibank economist said the consequences of large capital inflows were "undesirable given the short-term nature of much of the capital flows and the painful memories of the financial crisis 10 years ago."
Woo Yuen Pau, president and chief executive of think-tank Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said in Bangkok that current capital inflows were focusing on the equity market, not short-term debts that led to the 1997 meltdown.
But Woo warned money inflows could quickly turn into capital flight if the government takes drastic measures, such as the capital controls it briefly imposed last December to halt the baht's rise.
The central bank was again under pressure last week to rein in the baht and cut its key interest rate on Wednesday by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent. Despite the rate cut, the baht closed again on Friday at a near 10-year high of 33.65-67 to the US dollar.
Central bank Governor Tarisa Watanagase has vowed to weaken the baht, but stressed the bank would take no extreme measures.
"We cannot do things that are extreme such as a currency peg system. We have to be moderate," she said last week.
RESTAURANT POISONING? Deputy Minister of Health and Welfare Victor Wang at a press conference last night said this was the first time bongkrekic acid was detected in Taiwan An autopsy discovered bongkrekic acid in a specimen collected from a person who died from food poisoning after dining at the Malaysian restaurant chain Polam Kopitiam, the Ministry of Health and Welfare said at a news conference last night. It was the first time bongkrekic acid was detected in Taiwan, Deputy Minister of Health and Welfare Victor Wang (王必勝) said. The testing conducted by forensic specialists at National Taiwan University was facilitated after a hospital voluntarily offered standard samples it had in stock that are required to test for bongkrekic acid, he said. Wang told the news conference that testing would continue despite
The government is aiming to recruit 1,096 foreign English teachers and teaching assistants this year, the Ministry of Education said yesterday. The foreign teachers would work closely with elementary and junior-high instructors to create and teach courses, ministry official Tsai Yi-ching (蔡宜靜) said. Together, they would create an immersive language environment, helping to motivate students while enhancing the skills of local teachers, she said. The ministry has since 2021 been recruiting foreign teachers through the Taiwan Foreign English Teacher Program, which offers placement, salary, housing and other benefits to eligible foreign teachers. Two centers serving northern and southern Taiwan assist in recruiting and training
WIDE NET: Health officials said they are considering all possibilities, such as bongkrekic acid, while the city mayor said they have not ruled out the possibility of a malicious act of poisoning Two people who dined at a restaurant in Taipei’s Far Eastern Department Store Xinyi A13 last week have died, while four are in intensive care, the Taipei Department of Health said yesterday. All of the outlets of Malaysian vegetarian restaurant franchise Polam Kopitiam have been ordered to close pending an investigation after 11 people became ill due to suspected food poisoning, city officials told a news conference in Taipei. The first fatality, a 39-year-old man who ate at the restaurant on Friday last week, died of kidney failure two days later at the city’s Mackay Memorial Hospital. A 66-year-old man who dined
‘CARRIER KILLERS’: The Tuo Chiang-class corvettes’ stealth capability means they have a radar cross-section as small as the size of a fishing boat, an analyst said President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) yesterday presided over a ceremony at Yilan County’s Suao Harbor (蘇澳港), where the navy took delivery of two indigenous Tuo Chiang-class corvettes. The corvettes, An Chiang (安江) and Wan Chiang (萬江), along with the introduction of the coast guard’s third and fourth 4,000-tonne cutters earlier this month, are a testament to Taiwan’s shipbuilding capability and signify the nation’s resolve to defend democracy and freedom, Tsai said. The vessels are also the last two of six Tuo Chiang-class corvettes ordered from Lungteh Shipbuilding Co (龍德造船) by the navy, Tsai said. The first Tuo Chiang-class vessel delivered was Ta Chiang (塔江)