Abandoned by his fellow Shiites, Iraq’s prime minister must turn to new allies and work twice as hard to form a broad-based alliance if he is to keep his job after January’s parliamentary elections.
Just over a week ago, all Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had to do was to hold steady until voting day. With violence down to record lows, his political rivals in disarray and his image as a nonsectarian leader taking root, he was virtually assured of another four years at the helm.
But then suicide truck bombings on Aug. 19 devastated the foreign and finance ministries, killing about 100 people and dealing a major blow to confidence in the country’s security forces. Iraq’s media called it “Bloody Wednesday.”
The bombings, which followed several other high-profile attacks after the June 30 withdrawal of US forces from urban areas, eroded the prime minister’s biggest asset — improved security.
Al-Maliki’s one-time Shiite allies dumped him on Monday from a new coalition they formed to contest the Jan. 16 vote, a move that will likely put pressure on the prime minister to turn to Sunnis for support.
Whether al-Maliki can recover in time and secure his job after the January vote is a question that has ramifications that go beyond Iraqi politics.
The US sees in al-Maliki a reliable if somewhat too nationalist and independent-minded ally who has friendly ties with the Iranians but keeps them at a safe distance. Those poised to possibly take his place have stronger links to Tehran and could take a less friendly stance toward the US, who still maintain some 130,000 troops in the country.
The US military plans to withdraw all its forces by the end of 2011, leaving behind a vacuum many fear the Iranians would be eager to fill.
Leaders of the new Iraqi National Alliance said al-Maliki stayed out because of differences over leadership and other issues but that the door was open for him to join later.
That’s highly unlikely. Such a decision would almost certainly be seen as a sign of weakness and could undermine al-Maliki enough that he would lose his job anyway.
“No one in the Shiite parties of the new alliance is ready to make concessions to him,” said Iraqi political analyst Nabil Salim, alluding to al-Maliki’s widely reported demand that he would join on condition that he was guaranteed the prime minister’s job after the elections.
The new bloc is led by the largest Shiite party, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, and a bloc loyal to anti-US cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Both have close ties to Tehran. The bloc also includes small Sunni and secular groups.
It replaces a Shiite alliance that won the last election in December 2005, dominating the 275-seat legislature and securing al-Maliki the prime minister’s job.
Al-Maliki has yet to comment publicly on the new bloc, but a close aide, Hassan al-Sineid, said the prime minister remained committed to the creation of a broad-based, national alliance.
Cobbling together an alliance to lead into the elections will not be difficult, but the real test is whether the bloc would be strong enough to lure voters in the mainly Shiite south of Iraq and to get on board credible Sunni leaders with a real popular base.
The tough part, though, is whether al-Maliki can do enough to reassure Iraqis that he is the leader they should vote for if they want to see their No. 1 wish — security — come true.
That said, more bloodshed could kill al-Maliki’s chances altogether of returning as prime minister.
FRUSTRATIONS: One in seven youths in China and Indonesia are unemployed, and many in the region are stuck in low-productivity jobs, the World Bank said Young people across Asia are struggling to find good jobs, with many stuck in low-productivity work that the World Bank said could strain social stability as frustrations fuel a global wave of youth-led protests. The bank highlighted a persistent gap between younger and more experienced workers across several Asian economies in a regional economic update released yesterday, noting that one in seven young people in China and Indonesia are unemployed. The share of people now vulnerable to falling into poverty is now larger than the middle class in most countries, it said. “The employment rate is generally high, but the young struggle to
STEPPING UP: Diminished US polar science presence mean opportunities for the UK and other countries, although China or Russia might also fill that gap, a researcher said The UK’s flagship polar research vessel is to head to Antarctica next week to help advance dozens of climate change-linked science projects, as Western nations spearhead studies there while the US withdraws. The RRS Sir David Attenborough, a state-of-the-art ship named after the renowned British naturalist, would aid research on everything from “hunting underwater tsunamis” to tracking glacier melt and whale populations. Operated by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), the country’s polar research institute, the 15,000-tonne icebreaker — boasting a helipad, and various laboratories and gadgetry — is pivotal to the UK’s efforts to assess climate change’s impact there. “The saying goes
ENERGY SHIFT: A report by Ember suggests it is possible for the world to wean off polluting sources of power, such as coal and gas, even as demand for electricity surges Worldwide solar and wind power generation has outpaced electricity demand this year, and for the first time on record, renewable energies combined generated more power than coal, a new analysis said. Global solar generation grew by a record 31 percent in the first half of the year, while wind generation grew 7.7 percent, according to the report by the energy think tank Ember, which was released after midnight yesterday. Solar and wind generation combined grew by more than 400 terawatt hours, which was more than the increase in overall global demand during the same period, it said. The findings suggest it is
TICKING CLOCK: A path to a budget agreement was still possible, the president’s office said, as a debate on reversing an increase of the pension age carries on French President Emmanuel Macron yesterday was racing to find a new prime minister within a two-day deadline after the resignation of outgoing French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu tipped the country deeper into political crisis. The presidency late on Wednesday said that Macron would name a new prime minister within 48 hours, indicating that the appointment would come by this evening at the latest. Lecornu told French television in an interview that he expected a new prime minister to be named — rather than early legislative elections or Macron’s resignation — to resolve the crisis. The developments were the latest twists in three tumultuous
RSS