Abandoned by his fellow Shiites, Iraq’s prime minister must turn to new allies and work twice as hard to form a broad-based alliance if he is to keep his job after January’s parliamentary elections.
Just over a week ago, all Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had to do was to hold steady until voting day. With violence down to record lows, his political rivals in disarray and his image as a nonsectarian leader taking root, he was virtually assured of another four years at the helm.
But then suicide truck bombings on Aug. 19 devastated the foreign and finance ministries, killing about 100 people and dealing a major blow to confidence in the country’s security forces. Iraq’s media called it “Bloody Wednesday.”
The bombings, which followed several other high-profile attacks after the June 30 withdrawal of US forces from urban areas, eroded the prime minister’s biggest asset — improved security.
Al-Maliki’s one-time Shiite allies dumped him on Monday from a new coalition they formed to contest the Jan. 16 vote, a move that will likely put pressure on the prime minister to turn to Sunnis for support.
Whether al-Maliki can recover in time and secure his job after the January vote is a question that has ramifications that go beyond Iraqi politics.
The US sees in al-Maliki a reliable if somewhat too nationalist and independent-minded ally who has friendly ties with the Iranians but keeps them at a safe distance. Those poised to possibly take his place have stronger links to Tehran and could take a less friendly stance toward the US, who still maintain some 130,000 troops in the country.
The US military plans to withdraw all its forces by the end of 2011, leaving behind a vacuum many fear the Iranians would be eager to fill.
Leaders of the new Iraqi National Alliance said al-Maliki stayed out because of differences over leadership and other issues but that the door was open for him to join later.
That’s highly unlikely. Such a decision would almost certainly be seen as a sign of weakness and could undermine al-Maliki enough that he would lose his job anyway.
“No one in the Shiite parties of the new alliance is ready to make concessions to him,” said Iraqi political analyst Nabil Salim, alluding to al-Maliki’s widely reported demand that he would join on condition that he was guaranteed the prime minister’s job after the elections.
The new bloc is led by the largest Shiite party, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, and a bloc loyal to anti-US cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Both have close ties to Tehran. The bloc also includes small Sunni and secular groups.
It replaces a Shiite alliance that won the last election in December 2005, dominating the 275-seat legislature and securing al-Maliki the prime minister’s job.
Al-Maliki has yet to comment publicly on the new bloc, but a close aide, Hassan al-Sineid, said the prime minister remained committed to the creation of a broad-based, national alliance.
Cobbling together an alliance to lead into the elections will not be difficult, but the real test is whether the bloc would be strong enough to lure voters in the mainly Shiite south of Iraq and to get on board credible Sunni leaders with a real popular base.
The tough part, though, is whether al-Maliki can do enough to reassure Iraqis that he is the leader they should vote for if they want to see their No. 1 wish — security — come true.
That said, more bloodshed could kill al-Maliki’s chances altogether of returning as prime minister.
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