The next Iranian president will take power at a defining moment for the Islamic republic’s foreign policy, with diplomatic overtures from US President Barack Obama offering a chance to turn the page.
For years Iran has derided the US as the “Great Satan,” while Obama’s predecessor George W. Bush labeled Tehran part of an “axis of evil” and refused to rule out military action over Iran’s nuclear program.
But now Tehran has an opportunity to mend three decades of broken relations with Washington and pursue a negotiated solution to the nuclear standoff with the West, which has seen the UN Security Council impose three sets of sanctions.
The next president will not make the big decisions — the Iranian political system gives the final say on strategic issues to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
But whoever wins this month’s election will play a key role in implementing the policy and handling what may be a turning point in Iran’s relations with the outside world.
“The core of Iran’s foreign policy after the election will revolve around how to respond to Obama’s moves and managing the nuclear talks with global powers,” political analyst Mashaallah Shamsolvaezin told reporters.
“Until now, it was easy for Iran to blast the United States, especially after what Bush did,” Shamsolvaezin said. “But under Obama things have changed. There is a belief among Iranian leaders that, if required, Obama has the ability to turn the world against Iran, which is why Iranian leaders have to resolve all the outstanding issues with Washington during Obama’s term.”
Soon after taking office in January, Obama said his administration was ready to extend a diplomatic hand if Iran “unclenches its fist.”
And on Thursday, Obama made a significant gesture to Iran, becoming the first sitting US president to acknowledge US involvement in the 1953 coup that overthrew the government of Iranian prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh, a longstanding Iranian demand.
But US officials have also made it clear that if Tehran spurns the overtures, Washington will seek much tougher UN action over Iran’s nuclear program, which Western governments suspect is cover for a drive for an atomic bomb.
Iran has made some conciliatory gestures of its own, taking part in a US-backed conference on Afghanistan and offering its help in stabilizing its eastern neighbor.
Shamsolvaezin said Tehran knows Washington needs its help in maintaining regional stability.
“It will play this card in its foreign policy,” he said.
Incumbent hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeatedly antagonized Western governments by aggressively championing Iran’s nuclear program.
Defying repeated UN Security Council ultimatums to freeze uranium enrichment, Ahmadinejad said Iran’s drive to master the nuclear fuel cycle was a “train without brakes and no reverse gear.”
His leading challenger in Friday’s election, former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, has promised to work to improve Iran’s relations with the outside world, but analysts said they doubted there would be much change in nuclear policy if he were elected.
“I don’t think the Islamic republic will compromise on the nuclear issue whoever becomes president, be it Ahmadinejad or Mousavi,” said Sayed Mohammad Marandi, head of North American studies at Tehran University. “It has nothing to do with who becomes president.”
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