Turkey’s jobless rate — running at a record 16.1 percent and even higher among young people — poses a major challenge for the government amid a steep economic downturn with possibly heavy social consequences, analysts said.
Unemployment is chronically high and the problem is compounded because the population is overwhelmingly young.
New entrants swell the workforce each year and a decline in the farming sector is driving the migration of unqualified laborers to urban areas.
“The jobless rate was already high and now with the global economic crisis, it has shot up faster than in other countries,” said Nurhan Yenturk, an economist at Istanbul’s Bilgi University.
The government, she said, delayed the introduction of much-needed “radical measures” as it sought to play down the impact of the global crisis on Turkey, wary of its political cost ahead of local elections in March.
The rising jobless rate hit 16.1 percent, or 3.8 million people, in the three months to the end of March, up from 15.5 percent in the three months to February, official data released on Friday showed.
The rate among people aged 15 to 24 was even more alarming, at 28.6 percent, up from 27.9 percent the previous month.
Economist Gungor Uras said demographic trends are at the core of the problem — Turkey’s population grew 1.31 percent to 71.5 million last year, half of it younger than 28 years.
“Unlike Western countries, our population grows rapidly ... This means we are faced with the problem of creating jobs for the newcomers, in addition to keeping the existing workforce employed,” Ures said in a recent article in the Dunya daily.
Yenturk highlighted another worrying aspect.
“In the European Union, the jobless rate among young people falls as education levels increase,” she said. “In Turkey, it is the opposite ... University graduates make up 18.5 percent of the jobless in the 20 to 24 age group.”
Many educated people are also known to work in unqualified jobs.
In a striking illustration of the problem, last month Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul reported a big increase in applications by university graduates for military service, which educated men usually take pains to avoid.
“Unable to find jobs, they seek economic security for at least a certain period,” he said, pointing to the salary of 1,700 Turkish lira (US$1,100) which university graduates are paid on the long-term draft.
Experts agree the problem requires drastic economic and social measures, but see little ground for optimism at a time when the economic data is dire.
Turkey’s economy, among the strongest in the region in recent years, shrank 6.2 percent in the last quarter of last year. Industrial output dropped 20.9 percent in March, with the automotive sector suffering a 53.1 percent slump.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government is reportedly working on a package of measures aimed at creating jobs for at least 500,000 people.
Experts warn that failing to ease unemployment threatens grave social consequences, especially among young people, who, feeling left out and without prospects, could grow socially hostile.
“Social alienation stokes intolerance and leads people to blame those who are better-off for their problems, fanning an inclination to override and crush them,” Yenturk said.
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