North Korea’s apparent moves toward a missile launch are often seen in Washington as a plea for attention, but some experts say the communist state may also be driven by reasons the US can do little about.
North Korea is on combat alert as US and South Korean troops hold a 12-day exercise that Pyongyang calls a rehearsal for invasion. North Korea has warned that any attempt to block its upcoming “satellite” launch would spark a war.
US officials have said North Korea’s stated plans to test a satellite are a way to ensure that it remains on Washington’s agenda amid a change in administration and a deadlock in disarmament talks.
DETERMINED
But Korea expert L. Gordon Flake, advisor to then-senator Barack Obama when he was a presidential candidate, said North Korea’s military looked determined to develop missiles regardless of day-to-day political developments.
Flake noted that Pyongyang went ahead with test, albeit a failed one, in 2006 despite repeated warnings.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
“Why do we assume that all politics is domestic in the US and not in North Korea?” said Flake, who heads the Mansfield Foundation on US-Asia relations and is not affiliated with US President Obama’s administration. “It is possible to say that they will use brinksmanship and act out if they ignored, but right now it is hard to see what they would get as they are not necessarily being ignored — they have a demand on the table.”
Flake also doubted North Korea worried about sanctions, as only Japan slapped painful economic measures over the 2006 missile test.
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