The virus that causes AIDS could theoretically be eliminated in a decade if all people living in countries with high infection rates are regularly tested and treated, a new mathematical model showed.
It is an intriguing solution to end the AIDS epidemic. But it is based on assumptions rather than data and is riddled with logistical problems. The research was published online on Tuesday in the medical journal The Lancet.
“It’s quite a startling result,” said Charlie Gilks, an AIDS treatment expert at WHO and one of the paper’s authors. “In a relatively short amount of time, we could potentially knock the epidemic on its head.”
Gilks and colleagues used data from South Africa and Malawi. In their model, people were voluntarily tested each year and immediately given drugs if they tested positive for HIV, regardless of whether they were sick.
Within 10 years, HIV infections dropped by 95 percent. Other initiatives like safe sex education and male circumcision were also used.
The strategy would cut the estimated number of AIDS deaths between this year and 2050 by about half, from about 8.7 million to 3.9 million, leaving only sporadic HIV cases.
Experts think the strategy’s cost would peak at about US$3.4 billion a year, though expenses would fall after an initial investment.
“This is certainly beyond the bounds of the current infrastructure for many countries, but that is not a reason not to think big,” said Myron Cohen of the University of North Carolina who has done similar research. He was not involved in the WHO study.
Only 3 million people are currently on AIDS drugs. Nearly 7 million people are still awaiting treatment, and about 3 million more people were infected last year. Worldwide, WHO guesses that about 33 million people have HIV.
Increasing access to testing and drugs would stretch already weak health systems in Africa, which has most of the world’s HIV cases.
“This is not like giving someone a Tylenol,” said Jennifer Kates, director of HIV policy for the Kaiser Family Foundation in Washington.
Once people start AIDS drugs, they must continue indefinitely.
“The idea should be explored, but it’s a huge leap,” Kates said.
Handing out AIDS drugs to everyone who tests positive could also worsen drug resistance.
In addition, doctors don’t know if it’s safe to take AIDS drugs for decades; the oldest drug combinations have only been around for about a dozen years.
Other experts questioned whether the strategy might infringe on patient’s rights. Once people test positive for HIV, they would be advised to start treatment, even if they weren’t sick.
That would benefit the community, but not necessarily the patients themselves. AIDS drugs come with side effects including vomiting, liver failure and heart attacks.
WHO emphasized that the study findings do not signal a policy change.
“This is only a theoretical exercise,” said Kevin De Cock, director of WHO’s HIV/AIDS department.
He said WHO would hold a meeting next year to study the idea more closely.
In the sweltering streets of Jakarta, buskers carry towering, hollow puppets and pass around a bucket for donations. Now, they fear becoming outlaws. City authorities said they would crack down on use of the sacred ondel-ondel puppets, which can stand as tall as a truck, and they are drafting legislation to remove what they view as a street nuisance. Performances featuring the puppets — originally used by Jakarta’s Betawi people to ward off evil spirits — would be allowed only at set events. The ban could leave many ondel-ondel buskers in Jakarta jobless. “I am confused and anxious. I fear getting raided or even
Eleven people, including a former minister, were arrested in Serbia on Friday over a train station disaster in which 16 people died. The concrete canopy of the newly renovated station in the northern city of Novi Sad collapsed on Nov. 1, 2024 in a disaster widely blamed on corruption and poor oversight. It sparked a wave of student-led protests and led to the resignation of then-Serbian prime minister Milos Vucevic and the fall of his government. The public prosecutor’s office in Novi Sad opened an investigation into the accident and deaths. In February, the public prosecutor’s office for organized crime opened another probe into
RISING RACISM: A Japanese group called on China to assure safety in the country, while the Chinese embassy in Tokyo urged action against a ‘surge in xenophobia’ A Japanese woman living in China was attacked and injured by a man in a subway station in Suzhou, China, Japanese media said, hours after two Chinese men were seriously injured in violence in Tokyo. The attacks on Thursday raised concern about xenophobic sentiment in China and Japan that have been blamed for assaults in both countries. It was the third attack involving Japanese living in China since last year. In the two previous cases in China, Chinese authorities have insisted they were isolated incidents. Japanese broadcaster NHK did not identify the woman injured in Suzhou by name, but, citing the Japanese
RESTRUCTURE: Myanmar’s military has ended emergency rule and announced plans for elections in December, but critics said the move aims to entrench junta control Myanmar’s military government announced on Thursday that it was ending the state of emergency declared after it seized power in 2021 and would restructure administrative bodies to prepare for the new election at the end of the year. However, the polls planned for an unspecified date in December face serious obstacles, including a civil war raging over most of the country and pledges by opponents of the military rule to derail the election because they believe it can be neither free nor fair. Under the restructuring, Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is giving up two posts, but would stay at the
RSS