People in the southern German state of Bavaria began voting yesterday in a crucial election that could see the ruling Christian Social Union (CSU) lose its absolute majority.
The Bavarian sister party of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) is facing a voter backlash in the state where it has ruled alone since 1966.
If the CSU wins fewer than half the 180 seats in the parliament in Munich, it could signal a weakening of support for the conservative camp and hurt Merkel’s chances of retaining power in German federal elections scheduled for next September.
The CSU’s good showing in Bavaria in the 2004 general election helped elevate Merkel to power at the head of a grand coalition with the left-of-center Social Democrats (SPD).
But opinion polls are predicting a swing by the 9.3-million-strong Bavarian electorate to smaller parties such as the Greens, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), the regional Free Voters and the pro-labor Left Party.
The SPD is not expected to profit from the CSU’s eroding support, with opinion polls putting it at around 20 percent, which is roughly the same as in the last state elections five years ago.
The CSU is tipped to win between 47 percent and 49 percent, well below the 60.7 percent they polled in 2003 when the party was led by Edmund Stoiber.
The Alpine state, where some of Germany’s leading companies have their headquarters, including Siemens and BMW, is one of the country’s most prosperous regions.
“I am convinced we will achieve our stated goal of 50 percent or more,” said Guenther Beckstein, 64, who was elected prime minister last year after Stoiber was toppled in a party rebellion.
Losses by the state-owned bank BayernLB, the scrapping of a prestigious super-fast train link to Munich airport and a controversial smoking ban have led to voter discontent with the leadership duo of Beckstein and party chairman Erwin Huber.
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