Voters in one of the most deprived parts of Britain go to the polls in a by-election today, potentially holding the fate of their fellow Scot, Prime Minister Gordon Brown, in their hands.
Brown’s governing Labour Party is defending a 13,507 majority from the 2005 general election in the Glasgow East constituency. In ordinary circumstances, a vote there would not cause party leaders to lose much sleep.
But Labour has lost two by-elections in recent months — one a safe seat in northwest England and another where they trailed in fifth behind the far-right British National Party — and is keen to avoid another failure.
Brown, who has plumbed record low poll ratings in recent months, is also under pressure because of the rising cost of living and has been criticized for his administration’s recent economic record and his own leadership style.
One of his party’s former spin doctors in Scotland has said that Brown, born and brought up in nearby Govan and barely a year into the job, will be challenged for the leadership if they are defeated in Glasgow East.
Opinion polls and political betting indicate that Labour will retain the seat but its margin of victory could be slashed. Results are expected early tomorrow.
A Progressive Scottish Opinion poll for the Scottish Daily Mail published at the weekend predicted that Labour would win 52 percent of the vote, with the main challengers — the Scottish National Party (SNP) — claiming on 35 percent.
Compared with the last general election, that represents an 11 percent fall for Labour and an 18 percent increase for the SNP, which won a narrow victory last year to become the largest party in the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh.
“If this poll is right, Glasgow East looks set to save Gordon Brown his job,” John Curtice, a professor of politics at Glasgow’s Strathclyde University, was quoted as saying by the newspaper.
SNP leader Alex Salmond, a keen horse-racing fan who is also the First Minister in the minority government in Edinburgh, has said that “favorites don’t always win” and has predicted a “political earthquake.”
He has also been encouraged by a separate poll of all Scots that suggested for the first time that his pro-independence party was in the lead on voting intentions for a general election, which is scheduled before May 2010 at the latest.
The YouGov/Daily Telegraph survey on July 11 also indicated that 49 percent of Scots wanted the SNP to win Glasgow East, compared with 33 percent for Labour.
The Glasgow East constituency, whose boundaries have been redrawn since the 2005 general election, has been given a rare national profile in recent weeks, with much made of the predominantly inner-city area’s acute social problems.
In 2002, a welfare charity found the Shettleston area of the constituency to be the most deprived part of Britain, based on UN ratings assessing life expectancy, employment, income and literacy.
Salmond has noted that in one part of the constituency, male life expectancy is 53.9 years — 15.1 years less than in war-torn Iraq. Others point out that in the Gaza Strip, men can expect to live to 70.5 years old.
Unemployment is well above the 5.2 percent national average, while there are high rates of alcoholism and drug dependency.
Such issues have been high on the agenda on the campaign trail, alongside local concerns about law and order and post office closures and national ones like welfare benefit reforms, housing tax, plus high gasoline and energy bills.
‘IN A DIFFERENT PLACE’: The envoy first visited Shanghai, where he attended a Chinese basketball playoff match, and is to meet top officials in Beijing tomorrow US Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday arrived in China on his second visit in a year as the US ramps up pressure on its rival over its support for Russia while also seeking to manage tensions with Beijing. The US diplomat tomorrow is to meet China’s top brass in Beijing, where he is also expected to plead for restraint as Taiwan inaugurates president-elect William Lai (賴清德), and to raise US concerns on Chinese trade practices. However, Blinken is also seeking to stabilize ties, with tensions between the world’s two largest economies easing since his previous visit in June last year. At the
Nearly half of China’s major cities are suffering “moderate to severe” levels of subsidence, putting millions of people at risk of flooding, especially as sea levels rise, according to a study of nationwide satellite data released yesterday. The authors of the paper, published by the journal Science, found that 45 percent of China’s urban land was sinking faster than 3mm per year, with 16 percent at more than 10mm per year, driven not only by declining water tables, but also the sheer weight of the built environment. With China’s urban population already in excess of 900 million people, “even a small portion
UNSETTLING IMAGES: The scene took place in front of TV crews covering the Trump trial, with a CNN anchor calling it an ‘emotional and unbelievably disturbing moment’ A man who doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire outside the courthouse where former US president Donald Trump is on trial has died, police said yesterday. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) said the man was declared dead by staff at an area hospital. The man was in Collect Pond Park at about 1:30pm on Friday when he took out pamphlets espousing conspiracy theories, tossed them around, then doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire, officials and witnesses said. A large number of police officers were nearby when it happened. Some officers and bystanders rushed
Beijing is continuing to commit genocide and crimes against humanity against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in its western Xinjiang province, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a report published on Monday, ahead of his planned visit to China this week. The State Department’s annual human rights report, which documents abuses recorded all over the world during the previous calendar year, repeated language from previous years on the treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, but the publication raises the issue ahead of delicate talks, including on the war in Ukraine and global trade, between the top U.S. diplomat and Chinese