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ANALYSIS: Indian government’s fate up in the air

The fate of India’s government, torn between saving itself or a nuclear pact with Washington, will likely be decided this week with the specter of early polls looming, analysts and leaders say.

Tensions between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Congress-led government and the four-party leftwing alliance supporting it in parliament have been running high since last July over the deal clinched with Washington in 2006.

Last week the spat worsened, with Singh appearing ready to risk his minority government and implement the pact with the US, despite fierce objections from the communists.

The agreement would give India access to civilian nuclear technology even though it has not signed global non-proliferation pacts.

On Friday, the leftists issued their strongest warning yet to the government, saying they would join hands with their arch rivals, the opposition Hindu nationalists, to bring it down if Singh went ahead with deal.

A government official who wished to remain unnamed said the prime minister and Congress party leader Sonia Gandhi would decide the deal’s future before Singh visits Japan on July 7 for the G8 summit.

Political analyst Rasheed Kidwai noted Gandhi “put a lot of effort into cobbling together this coalition” five years ago.

“She would not like to break off ties with any party or group in haste, she is not known to take decisions without thought,” he said.

A senior Congress leader said the party was consulting all allies and would take a final decision by Wednesday when a last round of talks with the left is slated.

Syndicated columnist Neerja Chowdhury said the communists’ moves were ideologically driven.

“The left is opposed to a strategic partnership with the US — this is the diet on which their cadres have been brought up. If they go against this, their cadres will desert them,” she said.

Meanwhile, efforts have been started by some small political groups within Singh’s coalition “to find a position acceptable to both sides,” said a leader from southern India, who did not wish to be named.

“We do not want to risk national polls right now with inflation at over 11 percent,” the leader said.

Annual inflation jumped on Friday to 11.05 percent from 8.75 percent a week earlier, and economists say the rate is headed higher due to record global crude oil prices.

“The high inflation drastically restricts the scope of any political heroics on the nuclear deal,” the Times of India newspaper said on Saturday.

National polls are due by next May, and Congress is seen as preferring to hold the elections over the winter when the weather is cooler.

Singh has argued the deal is vital to India’s energy security as the country already imports 70 percent of its crude needs and the figure is expected to rise.
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