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E Timorese head to polls tomorrow

East Timorese children take a bath at a refugee camp in Dili yesterday. When East Timor picks a new president tomorrow, voters hope to end a year of violence and instability that threatened to plunge one of the world's youngest and poorest nations into civil war. PHOTO: AP

When East Timor picks a new president tomorrow, voters hope to end a year of violence and instability that threatened to plunge one of the world's youngest and poorest nations into civil war.

The closely watched election -- which comes amid bitter political rivalries -- is a test of the fledgling state's democracy and its ability to survive on its own five years after breaking from decades of brutal Indonesian rule.

More than 522,000 people are eligible to vote in the election, in which eight candidates are vying to replace President Xanana Gusmao for a five-year term.

Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta, a popular Nobel Peace Prize laureate, had initially been considered a sure winner for the largely ceremonial role, but most experts now say a runoff is almost certain.

If that happens, a second round would follow a month later.

Ramos-Horta is believed to have lost supporters for approving an Australian military operation to capture fugitive military police commander Alfredo Reinado. He is also faulted for failing to imprison former interior minister Rogerio Lobato -- a fierce political opponent -- on gunrunning and murder charges.

"Ramos-Horta appears to have alienated his support base and it has been reflected in the fairly poor turnout at his rallies," said election observer Damien Kingsbury, an associate professor at the School of International and Political Studies in Victoria, Australia.

The presidential vote will gauge public support for a plan by Ramos-Horta and longtime ally Gusmao to oust the powerful left-wing Fretilin party from power. Gusmao plans to run for prime minister in crucial general elections in June in which his new party will try to seize Fretilin's majority in parliament.

East Timor descended into chaos last April after 600 soldiers were fired, triggering gunbattles between opposing police and army factions.

Dozens of people have been injured in sporadic clashes during two weeks of campaigning, causing some 2,800 foreign troops and police officers and 3,500 election officials to brace for possible violence during the voting.

Tensions are expected to be especially high when results are announced on Wednesday.

Kingsbury said all sides have violated the rules, but the vote can still be "within the parameters of free and fair."

Ramos-Horta's two main rivals are Francisco "Lu Olo" Guterres of Fretilin and Democratic Party leader Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo.

Voters are not expected to pick candidates over policy differences, but rather to select a person believed to have the greatest chance of restoring peace.
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