The UK government is aiming to begin a phased withdrawal of troops from Iraq as early as the middle of next year, the Guardian has learned. Work on an exit strategy is at an advanced stage and there will be a significant change of approach by the government after the Iraq election on Dec. 15.
With the first proper election in Iraq completed, Tony Blair and George Bush will be able to claim they have introduced democracy, making it easier for ministers and officials to begin talking openly about withdrawal.
Instead of the government mantra about "staying until asked by the Iraqis to leave," British ministers and officials will make it clear that the UK is determined to leave next year if the insurgency allows. Initial discussions between the British and Iraqi governments about a timetable have already taken place. Full negotiations are scheduled to start as soon as possible after a new Iraqi government is formed.
A joint statement from the Iraqi and British governments is to be published, setting out plans for handover of responsibility to the Iraqi army. Britain has about 8,500 soldiers in Iraq. The British intention is to have a phased withdrawal, province by province, with Maysan, north of Basra, likely to be first. The British government insists it will not go without the US. Although US forces are under daily attack, there are parts of its sector quiet enough to allow for handovers too.
British military commanders and defence officials confirmed yesterday that a significant number of troops could be withdrawn from Iraq next spring. They point to May when a new British brigade is due to replace the one which recently took over control of southeastern Iraq.
Next May is also the month when around 4,000 British troops will be deployed to Afghanistan to take over the international peacekeeping force and replace US troops in the hostile south of the country.
Though military chiefs have told John Reid, the UK defense secretary, that Britain's Afghan commitment does not depend on a rundown of British troops in Iraq, there is no doubt the beginning of a withdrawal would help the overstretched army.
Blair discussed the exit strategy on Monday with Adel Adbul Mahdi, the Iraqi vice-president who is likely to become prime minister after the election.
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