The recapture of Fallujah has not broken the insurgents' will to fight and may not pay the big dividend US planners had hoped -- to improve security enough to hold national elections in Sunni Muslim areas of central Iraq, according to US and Iraqi assessments.
Instead, the battle for control of the Sunni city 64km west of Baghdad has sharpened divisions among Iraq's major ethnic and religious groups, fueled anti-American sentiment and stoked the 18-month-old Sunni insurgency.
Those grim assessments, expressed privately by some US military officials and by some private experts on Iraq, raise doubts as to whether the January election will produce a government with sufficient legitimacy, especially in the eyes of the country's powerful Sunni Muslim minority.
Even before the battle for Fallujah began Nov. 8, US planners understood that capturing the city, where US troops are still fighting pockets of resistance, was only the first step in building enough security to allow the election to take place in the volatile Sunni areas north and west of Baghdad.
The next steps include solidifying Iraqi government control, repairing the substantial battle damage and winning the trust of the people of Fallujah.
That requires, among other things, an effective Iraqi police and security force.
General John Abizaid, the commander of all US forces in the Middle East, said during a visit to Iraq this week that the Fallujah offensive was a major blow to the insurgents, and he said the only way the US forces and their Iraqi allies can be defeated is if they lose their will.
"But we are also under no illusions. We know that the enemy will continue to fight," he told the Pentagon's internal news service.
Speaking to reporters on Capitol Hill, Lieutenant General Lance Smith said the military now had to keep the insurgency from regrouping.
"The issue for us at Central Command is make sure we keep the pressure on the terrorists and not allow another safe haven to occur, and we're going to do that," Smith said.
The Associated Press has learned that US military officials in Iraq concluded the population of Anbar province, which includes Fallujah, Ramadi, has been intimidated by the guerrillas and that the provincial security forces are nonfunctioning and their ranks infiltrated by guerrilla sympathizers.
Before the attack on Fallujah began last week, Prime Minister Ayad Allawi formally dissolved the city's police and security forces, which had fallen under control of the radical Sunni clerics who ran the city.
Calls have already emerged for the January vote to be postponed until security improves. Militant Sunni Arab clerics have called for a boycott to protest the Fallujah attack.
However, Iraq's electoral commission is having none of that.
"The election will take place on schedule under laws which cannot be changed because there is no legislative authority to do so," commission spokesman Farid Ayar said Wednesday.
The clerical leadership of the majority Shiite community is also deeply opposed to any delay in the election. The country's premier Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has been demanding elections since the early months of the US military occupation.
"I don't understand how delaying elections will improve the security situation," Hussain al-Shahristani, a Shiite scientist who is close to al-Sistani. "I believe that the most important reason for the deteriorating security situation in the country is the postponement of elections."
However, pressure for a postponement is likely to increase if the wave of car bombings, kidnappings, assassinations and armed attacks cannot be curbed as the ballot approaches.
Since the Fallujah offensive, there has already been a marked spike in insurgent attacks across other Sunni areas, notably Mosul where about 1,200 US troops launched an operation this week to reclaim police stations abandoned after insurgent raids. US officials say only 20 percent of the city's 5,000 police had returned to duty as of Wednesday.
Despite the risks, holding the January vote on schedule is important for several reasons. It would produce a representative government to replace Allawi's US-backed administration -- seen by many Iraqis as an unwanted legacy of the American occupation.
Voters will choose a 275-member legislature that will draft a permanent constitution. The document will resolve such key issues as whether Iraq adopts a federal system -- a major demand of the country's large Kurdish minority -- or remains a centralized state favored by the Arab majority.
LANDMARK CASE: ‘Every night we were dragged to US soldiers and sexually abused. Every week we were forced to undergo venereal disease tests,’ a victim said More than 100 South Korean women who were forced to work as prostitutes for US soldiers stationed in the country have filed a landmark lawsuit accusing Washington of abuse, their lawyers said yesterday. Historians and activists say tens of thousands of South Korean women worked for state-sanctioned brothels from the 1950s to 1980s, serving US troops stationed in country to protect the South from North Korea. In 2022, South Korea’s top court ruled that the government had illegally “established, managed and operated” such brothels for the US military, ordering it to pay about 120 plaintiffs compensation. Last week, 117 victims
China on Monday announced its first ever sanctions against an individual Japanese lawmaker, targeting China-born Hei Seki for “spreading fallacies” on issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and disputed islands, prompting a protest from Tokyo. Beijing has an ongoing spat with Tokyo over islands in the East China Sea claimed by both countries, and considers foreign criticism on sensitive political topics to be acts of interference. Seki, a naturalised Japanese citizen, “spread false information, colluded with Japanese anti-China forces, and wantonly attacked and smeared China”, foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian told reporters on Monday. “For his own selfish interests, (Seki)
Argentine President Javier Milei on Sunday vowed to “accelerate” his libertarian reforms after a crushing defeat in Buenos Aires provincial elections. The 54-year-old economist has slashed public spending, dismissed tens of thousands of public employees and led a major deregulation drive since taking office in December 2023. He acknowledged his party’s “clear defeat” by the center-left Peronist movement in the elections to the legislature of Buenos Aires province, the country’s economic powerhouse. A deflated-sounding Milei admitted to unspecified “mistakes” which he vowed to “correct,” but said he would not be swayed “one millimeter” from his reform agenda. “We will deepen and accelerate it,” he
Japan yesterday heralded the coming-of-age of Japanese Prince Hisahito with an elaborate ceremony at the Imperial Palace, where a succession crisis is brewing. The nephew of Japanese Emperor Naruhito, Hisahito received a black silk-and-lacquer crown at the ceremony, which marks the beginning of his royal adult life. “Thank you very much for bestowing the crown today at the coming-of-age ceremony,” Hisahito said. “I will fulfill my duties, being aware of my responsibilities as an adult member of the imperial family.” Although the emperor has a daughter — Princess Aiko — the 23-year-old has been sidelined by the royal family’s male-only
RSS