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Scare report hits the press

The US is the fourth most likely of 186 countries to be the target of a terrorist attack within the next 12 months, a research company based in London says in a report to be released on Monday.

The company, World Markets Research Center, ranks Colombia, Israel and Pakistan as the only countries with a greater terror risk than the US in the report, called the World Terrorism Index.

The company provides conservative-leaning research on the risk of terrorism for 500 public and private multinational clients. They include the European Commission, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, General Motors, Microsoft, Intel, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, and Shell Services International.

"Another Sept. 11-style terrorist attack in the United States is highly likely," the report states. "Networks of militant Islamist groups are less extensive in the US than they are in Western Europe, but US-led military action in Afghanistan and Iraq has exacerbated anti-US sentiment."

Guy Dunn, a company director and the author of the report, described the following as criteria used for the rankings: motivation of terrorist groups, the presence of terror cells, the scale and frequency of past attacks, the ability of terror groups to organize and obtain weapons, and the ability of the government to prevent the attacks. Each of the five categories is weighted, he said, with the motivation of terrorist groups receiving the most emphasis.

Colombia, whose government has struggled to control acts of violence by warring leftist guerrillas and rightist paramilitary groups, is at the top of the index. Israel, the report says, was ranked in second place despite a shaky ceasefire and continued international peace efforts.

Pakistan, whose government has struggled to stop the activities "of individuals and cells that espouse and pursue terrorism," is in third place, the report says. Ranked after the US are the Philippines, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Iraq, India and Britain.

Dunn said Iraq had moved up the list from near the bottom. "Iraq was actually in the bottom 10 before the war," he said. "But now with a political vacuum existing, and heavily armed factions, the climate is ripe for terrorism."

Ufi Ibraham, a vice president at the World Travel and Tourism Council, said the index would "have a bearing on the decisions taken by the private sector," in terms of whether they invest in a destination.

Her organization represents the presidents and chief executives of 100 corporations, including some of the world's largest. Terrorism experts said the index could help corporate clients gauge security risks but cautioned that it was nearly impossible to predict terrorist attacks.

"I think there is a great deal of hunger for information about the threat we are facing today," said Magnus Ranstorp, the director for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St. Andrews. He called the index "a useful tool to gauge what has happened in the past."

But he added, "I think it is extremely difficult, with a single index, to predict how terror cells make decisions about what to attack, when and where."

Britain is ranked 10th, the highest of any European country. "Motivation for such an attack among Islamic extremist groups is very high owing to the UK's close alliance with the US," the analysts wrote, "while sophisticated militant networks are known to be present within the country."

At the bottom of the index, in 186th place, is North Korea. "Despite being a member of the so-called Axis of Evil," Dunn said, "North Korea's repressive state has basically made it impossible for terrorists to function."

As part of the research for the index, the firm also sent out surveys to its clients. Of 214 responses, nearly three-quarters said terrorism posed a greater risk to their operations now than it had five years ago, and 72 percent concluded that the risk of terrorism had been a consideration in corporate decision-making.

Despite the heightened awareness, however, 56 percent of those polled said their companies had not conducted safety drills or programs to help prepare for a terrorist attack.
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