A Taiwanese epidemiologist yesterday said that it is “almost certain” that people infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) can be infectious without showing symptoms, which might make controlling the virus much harder.
Academia Sinica epidemiologist Ho Mei-shang (何美鄉) said that she drew the conclusion from the interactions between the fifth and eighth confirmed 2019-nCoV cases in Taiwan.
The fifth case is a woman who is believed to have been infected while working in China. She returned to Taiwan on Jan. 20 and apparently infected her husband.
Photo courtesy of Nantou County Government
The woman did not start showing symptoms until Jan. 25, while the husband started showing symptoms just a day later, Ho said.
If people have to be symptomatic to transmit the disease, that would mean the incubation period for the husband was only one day, which is unlikely given the studies on the virus, she said.
That means the fifth patient was likely infectious before she became symptomatic, which would make controlling the outbreak more difficult than SARS, said Ho, who was involved in the fight against SARS in 2003.
People with SARS became infectious after showing symptoms, making it easier to track down a patient’s medical history, including when they might have been infected, Ho said.
The WHO on its Web site has said that estimates of the incubation period range from one to 12.5 days, with median estimates of five to six days, so a one-day incubation period might not be impossible.
However, the issue gained renewed urgency when Taiwan confirmed its first asymptomatic patient on Sunday.
The patient, a man in his 20s, is the younger son of a couple who were diagnosed with 2019-nCoV on Thursday after the family transited in Hong Kong on Feb. 1 following a trip to Italy.
It is believed that the man was exposed to the same origin of the virus — on one of their flights, at Hong Kong International Airport or somewhere in Italy — as his family members, the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) said, adding that it was still unclear whether he was infectious.
Based on the asymptomatic case, CECC deputy chief Chuang Jen-hsiang (莊人祥) yesterday said that the center would now screen everyone who has lived in the same residence as confirmed patients or who had “high-risk close contact” with a confirmed patient, rather than only those who are symptomatic.
Ho said that she supports the government boosting screening of everyone who has had close contact with confirmed cases, regardless of whether they are symptomatic, considering that asymptomatic patients could possibly transmit the virus.
She also suggested that health authorities conduct another round of tests on Taiwanese who have returned home on a charter flight from Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, on Feb. 3 to make sure they are not infected.
As the virus spreads mainly via airborne droplets, Ho urged people not to touch their mouths, noses or eyes until after washing their hands to prevent an infection.
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