Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is likely to make Taiwan a “major issue” during his White House summit with US President Barack Obama this week, former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) chairman Richard Bush said on Monday.
Obama should urge Xi to be “cautious” and avoid making a “sensitive issue worse” in China’s response to a possible Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) victory in the January elections, said Bush, who is now director for East Asia policy studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
There was a “good chance” that the DPP would come back to power, he said in a post on the Brookings Web site titled “The return of the Taiwan issue to US-China relations.”
Xi’s message to Obama was likely to be: “You Americans don’t realize the danger that the DPP and its presidential candidate, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), pose. You need to do your part to contain what will become a bad situation,” Bush wrote.
Beijing probably fears that Tsai would act incrementally and covertly to create an independent Taiwan, “thus foreclosing China’s central goal of future unification,” he said.
“Tsai has made a modest effort to reassure Beijing and Washington about her intentions. She says she wants to preserve the current ‘status quo,’” he said. “But Beijing isn’t buying the vagueness. Xi himself has warned publicly that the cornerstone of cross-strait ties would be shaken if Taiwan does not accept the political foundation of cross-strait relations, particularly the principle of ‘one China.’”
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is “losing its moxie,” he said.
If Tsai wins the presidency, but does not accommodate Beijing’s demands, Beijing might take steps to restrict governmental and semi-governmental cross-strait interaction and use diplomatic pressure to reduce Taiwan’s international space, he said.
Bush speculated that Tsai could be pressured to respond, resulting in a “downward spiral” and both sides might seek US support.
Bush said Obama should respond to Xi’s warning about Tsai by reminding him that domestic factors are likely to be more important than external ones in deciding Taiwan’s presidential election.
Obama should encourage Xi to give Tsai credit when she does not say things that challenge China’s interests, Bush said, adding that Xi should create more common ground between the two sides, reduce misunderstandings and explore how to manage differences.
“This is best done via private, authoritative discussions,” he wrote.
Xi should focus on what Tsai says — if elected — in her inaugural address and what she does after she becomes president.
“Beijing’s interests are best served not by backing itself into a corner but by keeping options open,” Bush wrote.
However, Walter Lohman, director of the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center, on Monday told a foundation roundtable meeting about Xi’s visit that it was possible that Taiwan would only be raised in a “pro forma” way.
If Xi does raise Taiwan, “I don’t see that there is very much discussion that is appropriate. There is no real role that the United States does or should play in mediating between Beijing and Taiwan,” Lohman said.
Formosan Association for Public Affairs president Mark Kao (高龍榮) on Monday released a letter he wrote to Obama urging him to “prevail on President Xi to accept Taiwan as a friendly neighbor and move towards normalization of relations.”
He asked Obama to impress upon Xi the need to dismantle the large number of missiles targeted at Taiwan and to renounce the use of force against Taiwan.
“This is the best way to maintain peace and stability in Asia,” Kao said.
Xi arrives in Washington tomorrow and is scheduled to attend a working dinner at the White House. On Friday he will hold a joint news conference with Obama, meet congressional leaders and attend a state dinner.
The manufacture of the remaining 28 M1A2T Abrams tanks Taiwan purchased from the US has recently been completed, and they are expected to be delivered within the next one to two months, a source said yesterday. The Ministry of National Defense is arranging cargo ships to transport the tanks to Taiwan as soon as possible, said the source, who is familiar with the matter. The estimated arrival time ranges from late this month to early next month, the source said. The 28 Abrams tanks make up the third and final batch of a total of 108 tanks, valued at about NT$40.5 billion
Travel agencies in Taiwan are working to secure alternative flights for travelers bound for New Zealand for the Lunar New Year holiday, as Air New Zealand workers are set to strike next week. The airline said that it has confirmed that the planned industrial action by its international wide-body cabin crew would go ahead on Thursday and Friday next week. While the Auckland-based carrier pledged to take reasonable measures to mitigate the impact of the workers’ strike, an Air New Zealand flight arriving at Taipei from Auckland on Thursday and another flight departing from Taipei for Auckland on Saturday would have to
A group from the Taiwanese Designers in Australia association yesterday represented Taiwan at the Midsumma Pride March in Melbourne. The march, held in the St. Kilda suburb, is the city’s largest LGBTQIA+ parade and the flagship event of the annual Midsumma Festival. It attracted more than 45,000 spectators who supported the 400 groups and 10,000 marchers that participated this year, the association said. Taiwanese Designers said they organized a team to march for Taiwan this year, joining politicians, government agencies, professionals and community organizations in showing support for LGBTQIA+ people and diverse communities. As the first country in Asia to legalize same-sex
MOTIVES QUESTIONED The PLA considers Xi’s policies toward Taiwan to be driven by personal considerations rather than military assessment, the Epoch Times reports Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) latest purge of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) leadership might have been prompted by the military’s opposition to plans of invading Taiwan, the Epoch Times said. The Chinese military opposes waging war against Taiwan by a large consensus, putting it at odds with Xi’s vision, the Falun Gong-affiliated daily said in a report on Thursday, citing anonymous sources with insight into the PLA’s inner workings. The opposition is not the opinion of a few generals, but a widely shared view among the PLA cadre, the Epoch Times cited them as saying. “Chinese forces know full well that
RSS