Many Chinese foreign policy analysts now believe that Beijing has been too “accommodating and passive” in dealing with US support for Taiwan, a new Washington diplomatic study says.
“US efforts to sustain and enhance its military superiority in China’s backyard will further stoke Beijing’s worst fears and beliefs about American containment,” the study by Carnegie Endowment senior associate Michael Swaine says.
Titled The Need for a Stable US-China Balance of Power, it says that while the US is set to remain the strongest military power on a global level indefinitely, it might not always be able to keep up with China in the area covered by the so-called first and second island chains.
“A continuing US capacity to shift military assets from other parts of the globe to Asia in a crisis or conflict could conceivably correct America’s relative military decline in the western Pacific,” Swaine said in the report.
However, such a surge-based “solution” would require considerable time to implement, while Chinese military action against Taiwan “would almost certainly involve a very rapid strike aimed at establishing a fait accompli that could prove extremely difficult and costly to undo,” he said.
Swaine is described by Carnegie as “one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies.”
He said in the report that neutralizing the cross-strait threat would require the US to cut arms sales to Taiwan in return for verifiable limits on Chinese ballistic missiles and strike aircraft deployed near Taiwan.
“Beijing would also likely need to provide credible assurances that it would not use force against Taiwan in any conceivable contingency short of an outright Taiwanese declaration of de jure independence or the US placement of forces on the island,” Swaine said.
He said Beijing might view such a conditional limitation of its right to employ force as acceptable if viewed as a requirement for the creation of an overall stable balance of power in the western Pacific.
“Chinese leaders might also regard it as a step toward the eventual unification of the island with the mainland,” Swaine said.
He said that US decisionmakers are “extremely loath” to make significant adjustments in the current status of the Korean Peninsula or Taiwan.
“Any movement toward a reduction in or even a significant modification of the US security commitment to these two actors could result in either moving to acquire nuclear arms and/or threats or attacks from North Korea or China,” he said.
However, if understandings could be reached on the overall need for strategic adjustment, then specific concessions to minimize potential instabilities would become more possible.
Swaine concludes the report by saying that if both US and Chinese leaders could convince Taipei of the benefits of mutual assurances and restraints — none of which would require US abandonment of Taiwan — adverse outcomes, including a resort to nuclear weapons, could be avoided.
Foreign travelers entering Taiwan on a short layover via Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport are receiving NT$600 gift vouchers from yesterday, the Tourism Administration said, adding that it hopes the incentive would boost tourism consumption at the airport. The program, which allows travelers holding non-Taiwan passports who enter the country during a layover of up to 24 hours to claim a voucher, aims to promote attractions at the airport, the agency said in a statement on Friday. To participate, travelers must sign up on the campaign Web site, the agency said. They can then present their passport and boarding pass for their connecting international
Temperatures in northern Taiwan are forecast to reach as high as 30°C today, as an ongoing northeasterly seasonal wind system weakens, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. CWA forecaster Tseng Chao-cheng (曾昭誠) said yesterday that with the seasonal wind system weakening, warmer easterly winds would boost the temperature today. Daytime temperatures in northern Taiwan and Yilan County are expected to range from 28°C to 30°C today, up about 3°C from yesterday, Tseng said. According to the CWA, temperature highs in central and southern Taiwan could stay stable. However, the weather is expected to turn cooler starting tonight as the northeasterly wind system strengthens again
COOLING OFF: Temperatures are expected to fall to lows of about 20°C on Sunday and possibly 18°C to 19°C next week, following a wave of northeasterly winds on Friday The Central Weather Administration (CWA) on Sunday forecast more rain and cooler temperatures for northern Taiwan this week, with the mercury dropping to lows of 18°C, as another wave of northeasterly winds sweeps across the country. The current northeasterly winds would continue to affect Taiwan through today, with precipitation peaking today, bringing increased rainfall to windward areas, CWA forecaster Liu Pei-teng (劉沛滕) said. The weather system would weaken slightly tomorrow before another, stronger wave arrives on Friday, lasting into next week, Liu said. From yesterday to today, northern Taiwan can expect cool, wet weather, with lows of 22°C to 23°C in most areas,
Taiwan sweltered through its hottest October on record, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday, the latest in a string of global temperature records. The main island endured its highest average temperature since 1950, CWA forecaster Liu Pei-teng said. Temperatures the world over have soared in recent years as human-induced climate change contributes to ever more erratic weather patterns. Taiwan’s average temperature was 27.381°C as of Thursday, Liu said. Liu said the average could slip 0.1°C by the end of yesterday, but it would still be higher than the previous record of 27.009°C in 2016. "The temperature only started lowering around Oct. 18 or 19
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