Academics and political pundits yesterday differed on why Beijing appears to be reviving its “one country, two systems” policy after years of downplaying the formula, and at a time when the arrangement seems to be faring poorly in Hong Kong. However, they agreed that the policy is outdated and not conducive to the development of cross-strait relations.
The Chinese Integration Association held a roundtable forum on the implications of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) reaffirmation of Beijing’s determination to pursue the policy at a meeting with pro-unification groups from Taiwan last month, and its potential impact on future cross-strait relations.
Interestingly, pro-Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) specialists were not the only ones who expressed their disapproval or concern over Xi’s hard-line statement. Many pro-unification specialists, while still considering independence a dead-end that would exacerbate Beijing’s angst and destabilize cross-strait relations, said that Xi’s reiteration of the formula strains the efforts — whether on the part of the Chinese or pro-unification Taiwanese academics — for drawing up other possible frameworks for unification.
Former National Security Council secretary-general Su Chi (蘇起) reiterated his statement before reporters on Tuesday that Xi’s comment was a “pre-emptive warning” aimed at curbing the independence movement that is gaining momentum in Taiwan.
Xi may not have chosen the best time for making his statement, but it was made with an eye toward Taiwan’s year-end election, Su said.
“Beijing had been confident and did not feel the urge to push for unification, but it is now disappointed in the [President] Ma [Ying-jeou, 馬英九] administration, still has doubts about the DPP and is baffled by the Taiwanese leaning toward independence, which was acutely demonstrated by the Sunflower movement,” Su said.
“DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) remarks describing this leaning toward Taiwanese independence as a ‘natural element’ encoded in Taiwanese youth and claiming that Beijing would accordingly adjust its Taiwan policy if the DPP wins the election have alarmed the Chinese government,” he said.
Xi and Beijing are just reacting to developments in Taiwan, he said.
“The more Taiwan leans toward independence or the weaker the moderate force becomes, the more hawkish China will become,” he said.
Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies president Chao Chun-shan (趙春山) said that the rising pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong — the territory where the “one country, two systems” policy formulated by Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) originally with Taiwan in mind, has been implemented — has Xi worried that the failure of the “one country” — as Hong Kong and the mainland are now — could hinder the unification process designed for Taiwan.
For ‘peaceful unification,’ which has to precede ‘one country, two systems,’ Deng’s emphasis was on ‘peace,’ but Xi’s [emphasis] is on ‘unification.’ Deng cared more about ‘two systems,’ while Xi [care more about] ‘one country,’” Chao said.
As Xi continues his crackdown on corruption and political infighting in China, he cannot afford to appear soft, he said.
“But I’m relieved to see that Xi did not make similar comments [about Taiwan] in his October 1 speech,” Chao added. “The revival of the ‘one country two systems’ policy is a blow to those [pro-unification] academics who have been trying hard to come up with new frameworks [for unification], such as Chang Ya-chung’s (張亞中) ‘one China, three constitutions.”
Chang is a political science professor at National Taiwan University and chairman of the Chinese Integration Association.
Chang said he had written an open letter to Xi, telling the Chinese president that his recent repositioning of the cross-strait relationship “would do no good to ‘the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,’ which [Chang] strongly supports.”
“The policy places China and Taiwan in a father-son relationship, rather than one guaranteeing equal status to both,” which would be hard to swallow even for those who are against independence, he said.
Hsieh Ta-ning (謝大寧), secretary-general of the association and a professor at Fo Guang University, echoed Chang’s apprehension.
Like many other pro-unification academics, he was “startled and frustrated” by Xi’s remarks, Hsieh said.
“The Chinese government and people were surprised by the Sunflower movement, which showed the strength of the Taiwanese identity,” Hsieh said. “[Xi’s] reiteration of ‘one country, two systems’ indicates Beijing’s loss of confidence and disappointment in the Ma administration and its attempt to confine the framework to brace for possible administration change after the next presidential election.”
“Ma’s cross-strait policies have hit the wall and Taiwan’s leaning toward independence is changing Beijing’s Taiwan policy. As they can no longer see the possibility of political talks in the foreseeable future, returning to the easy ‘one country, two systems’ might even allow Beijing to have an extra hand to engage in other issues,” Hsieh said.
“Unfortunately, the principal boundaries set by Xi have caused Chinese academics working on the Taiwan issue to retract to a more conservative position,” he added.
James Huang (黃志芳), former minister of foreign affairs during the DPP administration, said that the “one country two systems” policy was designed to delay the problems that might be caused by the contradictions embedded in the different institutions.
“Our advantage has been our democratic institutions and values, but none of our governments have made good use of it to turn the tables,” he said.
Former DPP legislator Lin Cho-shui (林濁水) said Xi’s remarks were aimed at Hong Kong rather than Taiwan.
He said Xi could not afford to mess up the Hong Kong issue, but could explain away poor dealings with Taiwan.
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