There was a flurry of activity in Washington this week surrounding Taiwan’s submarine program — but little indication of much real progress.
Chief of US Naval Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert confirmed that he had talked with colleagues in Taipei about the program, a Taiwanese delegation was on Capitol Hill lobbying for submarine help, and House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce said in an interview that the US supported Taiwan’s efforts to build its own submarines.
However, sources close to US President Barack Obama’s administration and the Pentagon said there were no new moves afoot for the US to help Taiwan buy the much-needed diesel submarines or for technology transfers essential to domestic production.
“I have noted the activity surrounding Taiwan’s domestic submarine program, but do not infer that heralds progress behind the scenes,” US-Taiwan Business Council president Rupert Hammond-Chambers said.
“While the Obama administration does have several defense initiatives up and running with Taiwan, it does not appear to have any interest in defense modernization programs... That includes the submarine program and the possibility of a follow-on fighter sale,” he told the Taipei Times in an e-mail.
Hammond-Chambers said that while support from the US Congress was useful, it could not meaningfully impact US engagement on Taiwan’s submarine program.
“That can only start with the Obama administration making a policy-level decision to support the program,” he said.
Hammond-Chambers said there was “zero indication” that the White House had any intention to support Taiwan’s request for submarine help.
“They are committed to US-China mil-to-mil cooperation, and arms sales to Taiwan are linked by the Chinese and the Obama administration to the continuation of that process,” Hammond-Chambers said.
Other sources with direct links to the White House and the Pentagon, who insisted on anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the subject, said they were aware of no new developments on Taiwan’s desire to acquire submarines.
Nevertheless, Washington-based military experts continued to support Taiwan’s need for submarines.
“There is little time to lose,” International Assessment and Strategy Center senior fellow in Asian military affairs Rick Fisher told the Taipei Times.
He said the Chinese navy was intently focused on building anti-submarine forces, including new corvettes and frigates equipped with towed active-passive sonar arrays “most useful for the sea conditions around Taiwan.”
A new Shaanxi Y-9 long-range anti-submarine warfare patrol aircraft was also being tested.
Still, finding and defeating modern very quiet conventional submarines remained one of the most difficult missions for any navy, Fisher said.
“A much larger Taiwanese submarine force will deter war on the Taiwan Strait... Washington’s failure to properly mobilize a policy focus on helping Taiwan to successfully obtain new submarines is just one of many expectations of American leadership in Asia which have fallen short in the last decade,” he said.
He said that Taiwan’s need for new submarines had been “glaringly obvious” for 20 years and successive Taiwanese governments had expended great effort toward obtaining them.
Meanwhile, US news organizations reported this week that China’s submarine fleet was projected to reach 78 vessels by 2020, the same as the US.
By way of response to the Chinese expansion, Vietnam has bought six submarines from Russia, Japan is replacing its entire submarine fleet, South Korea is adding larger attack-submarines and India plans to build six new submarines.
Stockholm Institute senior researcher Siemon Wezeman has been quoted as saying: “ Submarines are seen as a potential for an underdog to cope with a large adversary. They can move silently and deny aerial or maritime control.”
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