Beijing could try to punish Taiwan if Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) wins the election on Saturday, a US academic told a conference in Washington.
Chinese policy toward Taiwan is personally associated with Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and a Tsai victory would be seen as a setback for him, Phil Saunders, director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, told the Heritage Foundation conference.
This situation could lead others in Beijing to push for tougher policies, he said.
“There are various things the mainland could do to punish Taiwan and the question is how will they use their leverage and try to shape the relationship,” Saunders said, adding that Beijing had “economic, political and diplomatic” leverage over Taiwan.
China might want to “put some hurt” on Taiwan, he said.
In the case of a Tsai victory, he said, there would be efforts to negotiate terms for a new relationship and the US would work to “deter either side from taking military steps or provocative steps.”
Saunders said Washington would leave Beijing and Taipei alone to work out the details of a new arrangement.
However, the US would counsel Beijing to “think carefully about putting everything at risk” and urge them to give Tsai time to establish an administration, get into office and work things through, he said.
The US would try to persuade Beijing not to do “anything radical that destabilizes the situation,” Saunders said.
He said that if Tsai won the election, he did not think she would take any “adverse actions” to upset the Chinese.
Much would depend on how the time between the election results and the inauguration was used to work out the terms of a new cross-strait relationship, Saunders said.
He did not think that Beijing would declare war or immediately start military intimidation.
They would try to work out a “mutually acceptable framework” on which to base future relations, he said.
Dean Cheng (成斌), a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center, recalled that when Tsai visited Washington last year, a senior official with the administration of US President Barack Obama gave a controversial interview to the Financial Times.
“She left us with distinct doubts about whether she is both willing and able to continue the stability in cross-strait relations the region has enjoyed in recent years,” said the unnamed official, who insiders have said was probably National Security Adviser Tom Donilon.
“Our administration’s Financial Times interview regarding Tsai Ing-wen unfortunately creates a situation where Tsai has much less incentive to be conciliatory to the US,” Cheng said.
“This does not mean that if she gets elected she will declare independence the next day, but it does weaken any American opportunities to have influence over DPP policies, simply because the administration seems to have come across with a ‘we don’t like you,’” he said. “And that matters.”
Cheng said there were other “regional developments” that could factor in Taiwan’s election results.
In particular, he mentioned the “interesting Japanese decision” to allow the export of military equipment “and how that will be interpreted in Beijing and Tokyo with regards to Taiwan.”
“How we interact with a DPP government regarding arms sales is absolutely going to be a focal point for Beijing,” he said.
“China is preparing to invade Taiwan,” Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu (吳志中) said in an exclusive interview with British media channel Sky News for a special report titled, “Is Taiwan ready for a Chinese invasion?” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said today in a statement. The 25-minute-long special report by Helen Ann-Smith released yesterday saw Sky News travel to Penghu, Taoyuan and Taipei to discuss the possibility of a Chinese invasion and how Taiwan is preparing for an attack. The film observed emergency response drills, interviewed baseball fans at the Taipei Dome on their views of US President
ECONOMIC BENEFITS: The imports from Belize would replace those from Honduras, whose shrimp exports have dropped 67 percent since cutting ties in 2023 Maintaining ties with Taiwan has economic benefits, Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials said yesterday, citing the approval of frozen whiteleg shrimp imports from Belize by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as an example. The FDA on Wednesday approved the tariff-free imports from Belize after the whiteleg shrimp passed the Systematic Inspection of Imported Food, which would continue to boost mutual trade, the ministry said. Taiwan’s annual consumption of whiteleg shrimps stands at 30,000 tonnes, far exceeding domestic production, the ministry said. Taiwan used to fill the gap by importing shrimps from Honduras, but purchases slumped after Tegucigalpa severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan
The Executive Yuan yesterday approved a southwestern extension of the Sanying MRT Line from New Taipei to Bade District (八德) in Taoyuan, with a goal of starting construction by late 2026. The 4.03-kilometer extension, featuring three new stations, will run from the current terminus at Yingtao Fude Station (LB12) in New Taipei City to Dannan Station (LB14), where it will connect with Taoyuan’s Green Line, New Taipei City Metro Corp said in a statement. This extension will follow the completion of core Sanying Line, a 14.29-kilometer medium-capacity system linking Tucheng (土城), Sansia (三峽)
CARGO LOSS: About 50 containers at the stern of the ‘Ever Lunar’ cargo ship went overboard, prompting the temporary closure of the port and disrupting operations Evergreen Marine Corp, Taiwan’s largest container shipper, yesterday said that all crew members aboard the Ever Lunar (長月) were safe after dozens of containers fell overboard off the coast of Peru the previous day. The incident occurred at 9:40am on Friday as the Ever Lunar was anchored and waiting to enter the Port of Callao when it suddenly experienced severe rolling, Evergreen said in a statement. The rolling, which caused the containers to fall, might have been caused by factors including a tsunami triggered by an earthquake in Russia, poor winter sea conditions in South America or a sudden influx of waves,