China is steeling itself for another presidential election in Taiwan, hoping a victory for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) enables even better ties but also girding for an opposition win that, according to some, could inflame tensions.
Beijing has never been comfortable with elections on Taiwan and has warned any attempt to set up an independent “Republic of Taiwan” would end in armed conflict.
Even so, political relations have improved since the election of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
Photo: Pichi Chuang, Reuters
Beijing has been more willing to work with Ma than with his predecessor, former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
“They’re very concerned about this upcoming election,” said Dafydd Fell, senior lecturer in Taiwan Studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, of Chinese leaders.
“Even when the DPP was at its lowest point, when I was talking to Taiwan people in China, they were still very worried at the prospect of the DPP coming back to power,” he said.
Chen was jailed for corruption after stepping down from power. However, the DPP has bounced back from that scandal and has put up steely, US and British-educated DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) to face Ma in January.
Chinese leaders will be hoping desperately that Ma gets back into office and continues a rapprochement that thus far has focused on economic issues but which China will eventually want to cover much harder and more sensitive political matters.
China vented its anger at Washington rather than Taipei after the announcement of US arms sales to Taiwan last month because it understood that rhetoric directed at Taiwan could play into the DPP’s hands and lessen the chances of Ma getting back into office, Beijing-based diplomats say.
The day before Washington unveiled the package, former KMT chairman Lien Chan (連戰) was greeted warmly in Shanghai, home to many Taiwanese companies and about 300,000 Taiwanese expatriates.
Lien lauded the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) deal signed last year.
“It is clear to all that this agreement has promoted cross-strait exchanges and Taiwan’s economic development,” the Taiwan Affairs Office quoted Lien as telling Shanghai’s Chinese Communist Party chief Yu Zhengsheng (俞正聲).
China will have to tread carefully, however. Previous attempts to influence Taiwan elections have backfired.
In 1996, then-Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民) ordered fire missiles tests and war games in the seas around Taiwan to try and intimidate voters not to back then-president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), who China believed was moving Taiwan closer to formal independence.
Lee won by a landslide.
China has made little attempt to hide its suspicions of Tsai.
In May, the People’s Daily accused Tsai of flip-flopping on China policy and still ultimately wanting to push Taiwan’s independence.
Earlier this month in Greater Kaohsiung, Tsai said Taiwan and the Republic of China (ROC) were the same thing, signaling for some a softer line on Taiwan’s status.
She had previously referred to the ROC as an illegitimate, foreign government.
China was not convinced.
“This is obfuscation, a backdoor way of supporting Taiwan independence,” Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Yang Yi (楊毅) said of Tsai’s remarks.
The DPP would not likely rule out contact with China if elected, Tsai campaign manager Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) said, but added: “We don’t expect the Chinese to respond to us positively.”
China has not closed the door to dealing with the DPP though.
“They are betting on both sides. If Ma is going to win re-election, they will be happy. If the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen is going to win, they will have preparations for that outcome as well,” said Bo Zhiyue (薄智躍), political scientist at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute.
“If the DPP wins, while China may be dissatisfied or displeased, it will not cancel groups or suspend direct flights in the beginning,” said Edwaid Chen (陳一新), professor at the Graduate Institute of the Americas at Tamkang University.
“Instead, it will send congratulations to Tsai Ing-wen first and take a wait-and-see approach,” Chen said.
Beijing could eventually see a full amphibious invasion of Taiwan as the only "prudent" way to bring about unification, the US Department of Defense said in a newly released annual report to Congress. The Pentagon's "Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2025," was in many ways similar to last year’s report but reorganized the analysis of the options China has to take over Taiwan. Generally, according to the report, Chinese leaders view the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) capabilities for a Taiwan campaign as improving, but they remain uncertain about its readiness to successfully seize
Taiwan is getting a day off on Christmas for the first time in 25 years. The change comes after opposition parties passed a law earlier this year to add or restore five public holidays, including Constitution Day, which falls on today, Dec. 25. The day marks the 1947 adoption of the constitution of the Republic of China, as the government in Taipei is formally known. Back then the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) governed China from Nanjing. When the KMT, now an opposition party in Taiwan, passed the legislation on holidays, it said that they would help “commemorate the history of national development.” That
Trips for more than 100,000 international and domestic air travelers could be disrupted as China launches a military exercise around Taiwan today, Taiwan’s Civil Aviation Administration (CAA) said yesterday. The exercise could affect nearly 900 flights scheduled to enter the Taipei Flight Information Region (FIR) during the exercise window, it added. A notice issued by the Chinese Civil Aviation Administration showed there would be seven temporary zones around the Taiwan Strait which would be used for live-fire exercises, lasting from 8am to 6pm today. All aircraft are prohibited from entering during exercise, it says. Taipei FIR has 14 international air routes and
Snow fell on Yushan (Jade Mountain, 玉山) yesterday morning as a continental cold air mass sent temperatures below freezing on Taiwan’s tallest peak, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Snowflakes were seen on Yushan’s north peak from 6:28am to 6:38am, but they did not fully cover the ground and no accumulation was recorded, the CWA said. As of 7:42am, the lowest temperature recorded across Taiwan was minus-5.5°C at Yushan’s Fengkou observatory and minus-4.7°C at the Yushan observatory, CWA data showed. On Hehuanshan (合歡山) in Nantou County, a low of 1.3°C was recorded at 6:39pm, when ice pellets fell at Songsyue Lodge (松雪樓), a
RSS