The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will begin a two-day telephone poll tomorrow to choose the party’s presidential nominee.
According to the design of the poll, each of the party’s three presidential hopefuls — Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and Hsu Hsin-liang (許信良) — will be paired against President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and respondents will be asked which of the two (Ma or the DPP hopefuls) they would support in the presidential election next year.
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
According to the rules of the comparative poll, four possible scenarios are expected.
In the first scenario, one of the three candidates would emerge as a clear winner, polling above or equal with Ma’s rating.
In the second scenario, more than one of the three candidates would poll better than Ma, in which case the DPP would choose the candidate with the highest poll result as its presidential nominee.
For example, if the three candidates’ individual poll against Ma showed that Candidate A scored 39 to Ma’s 37, Candidate B scored 38 to Ma’s 35 and Candidate C scored 40 to Ma’s 42, the party’s presidential nominee would be Candidate A, according to the rules of the telephone poll.
Although Candidate C has the highest overall rating, this candidate would be dropped from consideration because he or she failed to top Ma’s rating. In addition, while both Candidate A and Candidate B beat Ma in the poll, Candidate A has the higher rating of the two, so Candidate A would win the DPP primary.
In the third scenario, all three candidates’ approval ratings would rank below Ma’s and the party would choose the person who had the highest rating.
In the fourth scenario, the first three scenarios could not be applied because there would be a ratings tie between two or all of the presidential hopefuls.
In such a scenario, the party would use the gap between the candidates’ ratings and Ma’s, choosing the candidate who either beat Ma by the most or trailed him by the least.
POLLSTER
The DPP will randomly select five of the seven institutes in the nation who conduct polls to carry out the telephone survey between 6:30pm and 10pm tomorrow and Tuesday.
The poll would be extended for a day if there aren’t enough valid samples from the first two days of polling.
The winner of the telephone poll is expected to be announced on Wednesday at the earliest.
MEET AND GREET
In related news, at a gathering yesterday with a group of foreign nationals living in Taiwan, Tsai said there are generally a total of 13 million to 13.5 million votes cast nationwide.
While the DPP and the KMT each could probably garner about 6 million votes in the election, Tsai said the remaining 1 million to 1.5 million votes are up for grabs and the DPP is targeting those voters in the hope they will vote in favor of the party.
As long as the DPP remains united, it is possible that the party could win the presidential and the legislative elections next year, she said.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY LIN SHU-HUI AND RICH CHANG
The first two F-16V Bock 70 jets purchased from the US are expected to arrive in Taiwan around Double Ten National Day, which is on Oct. 10, a military source said yesterday. Of the 66 F-16V Block 70 jets purchased from the US, the first completed production in March, the source said, adding that since then three jets have been produced per month. Although there were reports of engine defects, the issue has been resolved, they said. After the jets arrive in Taiwan, they must first pass testing by the air force before they would officially become Taiwan’s property, they said. The air force
The Coast Guard Administration (CGA) yesterday said it had deployed patrol vessels to expel a China Coast Guard ship and a Chinese fishing boat near Pratas Island (Dongsha Island, 東沙群島) in the South China Sea. The China Coast Guard vessel was 28 nautical miles (52km) northeast of Pratas at 6:15am on Thursday, approaching the island’s restricted waters, which extend 24 nautical miles from its shoreline, the CGA’s Dongsha-Nansha Branch said in a statement. The Tainan, a 2,000-tonne cutter, was deployed by the CGA to shadow the Chinese ship, which left the area at 2:39pm on Friday, the statement said. At 6:31pm on Friday,
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, would pose a steep challenge to Taiwan’s ability to defend itself against a full-scale invasion, a defense expert said yesterday. Institute of National Defense and Security Research analyst Chieh Chung (揭仲) made the comment hours after the PLAN confirmed the carrier recently passed through the Taiwan Strait to conduct “scientific research tests and training missions” in the South China Sea. China has two carriers in operation — the Liaoning and the Shandong — with the Fujian undergoing sea trials. Although the PLAN needs time to train the Fujian’s air wing and
STRIKE: Some travel agencies in Taiwan said that they were aware of the situation in South Korea, and that group tours to the country were proceeding as planned A planned strike by airport personnel in South Korea has not affected group tours to the country from Taiwan, travel agencies said yesterday. They added that they were closely monitoring the situation. Personnel at 15 airports, including Seoul’s Incheon and Gimpo airports, are to go on strike. They announced at a news conference on Tuesday that the strike would begin on Friday next week and continue until the Mid-Autumn Festival next month. Some travel agencies in Taiwan, including Cola Tour, Lion Travel, SET Tour and ezTravel, said that they were aware of the situation in South Korea, and that group
RSS