Defense analyst Rick Fisher told a Washington conference that the US failure to sell weapons to Taiwan is leading both countries “down the road to tragedy.”
He said that selling the weapons was in the US’ “highest interests,” because it would give Taipei the means to deter an attack from China.
Fisher blamed the US State -Department’s refusal to reconsider its “narrow and strict” -interpretation of what the Taiwan Relations Act refers to as “defensive weapons.”
The situation, he argued before the Hudson Institute, was an “ongoing strategic tragedy.”
Fisher, of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, based his conclusion on an analysis of China’s new White Paper on national defense.
He said that Beijing would soon be demanding that Taipei enter into substantive political negotiations leading to a peace treaty, and that there was a “bold statement” in the paper that unification was desired and expected.
At the same time, he said, independence forces in Taiwan were identified as a “key enemy.”
For the first time, Fisher said, the “goals and missions” section of the White Paper gave high priority to People’s Liberation Army (PLA) efforts to contain and oppose the forces of Taiwan independence.
“When I read an official Chinese document identifying Taiwan independence as a threat, Taiwan independence as bad, Taiwan -independence as destroying the sovereignty of the great and glorious Chinese nation, I know they are talking about democracy,” he said. “It is not Taiwanese independence they are frightened of, it is democracy. That’s what threatens the Chinese Communist Party.”
Fisher said the White Paper made clear that the goal of unification had not been abandoned, but in this age of globalization and interconnectedness, it seemed “almost inconceivable” that China would risk a war over Taiwan.
Such a war, Fisher said, would require a level of “displacement and disruption” not seen since the fall of Vietnam. “I would caution that in the interest of preserving its principle core interest — sustaining its dictatorship — the Chinese Communist Party has more than proven its willingness to use force,” he said.
“The goal of taking Taiwan has not been abandoned. The PLA is continuing to build up its forces in preparation for a conflict over Taiwan, a conflict they hope will be short. They hope the people in Taiwan will increasingly surrender their rights and their sovereignties,” he said.
Fisher said the US should defend Taiwan not just because of the Taiwan Relations Act, but because of Washington’s own -strategic interests.
Abandoning Taiwan, he said, would lead to “challenges and problems” not the least of which would be losing the best opportunity to promote democratic reform in China by maintaining its example across the Strait.
Taiwan should concentrate its military on deterring an amphibious invasion by China, Fisher said.
“That’s the most profitable way to deter a war. If the PLA can’t put boots on the ground, can’t put armor on shore, it is not going to start the war to begin with,” he said.
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