Warming links between Taiwan and China are not a source of worry for the US and the best role for Washington in the current atmosphere of cross-strait rapprochement is to let things take their course, some US academics said at a forum in Taipei yesterday. Others, however, said the US could play a key role in helping to formulate confidence-building measures (CBM) between the Taiwanese military and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Ralph Cossa, president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Pacific Forum, said the US was “absolutely delighted that China and Taiwan are talking and working the question among themselves.”
HANDS OFF
“The best role [for the US] is to stand on the sidelines and cheer, and not to impede or try to help it,” said Cossa at the forum on Taiwan-US-China relations co-sponsored by the Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies (APS) and the Pacific Forum of the CSIS, a US think tank.
David Lampton, Chinese studies professor at Johns Hopkins University, said that only a small minority in Washington believed the US was nervous about increased ties between China and Taiwan.
Moreover, China is busy with internal affairs and hopes to avoid cross-strait problems, he said.
The panelists agreed that the government’s proposed economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) — a contentious trade pact between Taiwan and China — would be beneficial to the signers. But while transparency is the guiding principle in a democracy, it could be difficult in theory, especially in the midst of any negotiation process, they said.
The pan-green camp has said it does not oppose closer economic ties with Beijing, but worries the government has not provided a satisfactory explanation of potential effects the deal could have on the economy or sovereignty. While the Democratic Progressive Party has demanded the government postpone the signing, the government wants it signed sooner than later.
“The government is not that stupid and is doing everything to minimize the cost [of signing an ECFA],” said George Tsai (蔡瑋), a professor at the Sun Yat-sen Graduate Institute.
Although some US pundits said Washington has taken a hands-off approach in cross-strait development, Tamkang University professor Edward Chen (陳一新) called on the US to play multiple roles, such as that of promoter, facilitator, arbitrator, supervisor and guarantor in various phases of CBM negotiations between China and Taiwan.
For example, Chen said that at times of discord over the implementation of mutually agreed policies, the US could play arbitrator in encouraging both sides to exercise self-restraint. During the initial discussion phase, the US could be a facilitator by sharing experiences and advising Taiwan, he said.
Michael Green, the Japan chair at CSIS, said the US could help Taiwan gain leverage by approving the remainder of an arms package soon. The gesture would buttress Taiwan’s strength and minimize Beijing’s assumption that the US had shifted away from its longstanding security commitment to Taiwan.
While the panel acknowledged that so far the PLA had not shown much interest in establishing a comprehensive set of CBMs with Taiwan, there are other types of CBMs on reducing misunderstandings and the risk of accidents that might be more welcome, Cossa said.
CONDITIONS
Speaking earlier at the forum, APS president Chao Chun-shan (趙春山) said that at least three things must be completed before the political aspect of the cross-strait dialogue could begin — signings of an ECFA and a memorandum of understanding, a domestic consensus on the issue and acceptance by the international community.
“In the future, it may be possible to negotiate a cross-strait military trust mechanism or a cross-strait peace framework agreement. Before that happens, our government will listen to different opinions and comments in Taiwan and reach a mutual consensus while taking the interest of the US and other countries in this region into consideration,” he said.
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