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Legislative elections and referendums: ANALYSIS: DPP defeated by a new electoral system: analysts

A staff member of the Democratic Progressive Party updates election data at party headquarters in Taipei yesterday. PHOTO: AP

The nation saw a dramatic shift in power yesterday after the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered a major defeat at the hands of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in legislative elections.

While the south is traditionally considered A DPP stronghold, the party fared poorly in Kaohsiung City and Kaohsiung County and garnered just one seat in central Taiwan. The party had set a goal of capturing 35 district seats and 15 legislator-at-large seats, but ended up securing only 13 district seats and 14 at-large seats.

While opinion polls predicted a DPP loss, the extent of its defeat came as a surprise to some.

Analysts attributed the party's failure mainly to the new electoral system, which they said put the DPP in an unfavorable position.

Chao Yung-mau (趙永茂), a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said that the KMT election machine was efficient and well-organized. It had established a closely knit network with local voting captains during its 50-year reign and had a solid support base.

"Under the new electoral system, there is only one slot available in each constituency. Voters are looking for someone who can give them the best services possible and that costs money."

Chao Yung-mau, political science professor at National Taiwan University

The DPP, on the other hand, lacked a close connection at the local level, a majority of which is governed by the pan-blue camp, he said.

"Under the new electoral system, there is only one slot available in each constituency. Voters are looking for someone who can give them the best services possible and that costs money," he said.

The second-ballot voting system, in which voters pick the party of their choice, also puts the DPP at a disadvantage, because the biggest party benefits most from the design, Chao said.

"The DPP agreed on the new electoral system because it has its eyes set on two-party politics," he said. "It is well aware that it will take time to get rid of smaller parties and that it has to pay a price during the transitional period."

The game is pretty much set in some constituencies, such as the outlying islands, the east coast and Aboriginal seats, said Hawang Shiow-duan (黃秀端), a political science professor at Soochow University.

Another reason for the DPP's poor showing was public displeasure with the DPP administration's lackluster performance over the past eight years, analysts said.

Hawang said the economy was not as bad as some media outlets had portrayed, while admitting there was big room for improvement. Negative media reporting, however, took its toll and the administration was punished by voters for failing to give the economy a boost.

The DPP's disappointing performance also showed that focusing on identity and ethnic issues no longer worked as effectively as they used to, analysts said.

While the identity issue may stir up the passion of core DPP supporters, it may scare off more moderate voters, said Wu Chin-en (吳親恩), a political researcher at Academia Sinica.

"Those issues are like a double-edged sword," he said. "They have limited effect when they become the central issue in almost every election."

Tsai Chia-hung (蔡佳泓), an associate research fellow at National Chengchi University's Election Study Center, said that his research showed that more and more Taiwanese prefer a vague, rather than a clear, definition of identity.

In other words, more people favor being political neutral and do not want to be identified as Chinese or Taiwanese, he said.

Other factors must also be taken into account, Hawang said. They include the corruption allegations brought against President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and his family, the anti-Chen campaign calling for his resignation, soaring international oil prices and the rising prices of commodities and raw materials.

"When the public has higher expectations of the DPP, the party has to pay a price for failing their expectations," Hawang said.

With the KMT's solid victory, analysts foresee a legislature dominated by one big party and backed by big-money donors. As it is hard for smaller parties to put bigger parties in check, the future of partisan politics looks dismal, they said.

"The KMT will be like a dinosaur and the DPP a tiger, with fiercer and uglier fights continuing between the two rival parties," Chao said.

Apart from the legislative elections, the DPP-initiated referendum to reclaim the KMT's stolen assets also failed. Analysts were divided on the impact the failed referendum would have on the party.

Hawang said that that the defeat was a significant blow to the DPP, which seems to have exhausted all possible means to achieve its goal of retrieving the stolen assets.

As a minority in the legislature, Hawang said the DPP would continue to face a KMT boycott on any attempt to recover the assets.

The DPP will still face the same dilemma even if its presidential candidate, Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), were to win in March because the party would still be a minority in the legislature, she said.

Wu dismissed the result of the referendum as insignificant because it was part of the election campaign strategy and the topic was a "non-issue."

Legislation is required to legally reclaim the KMT's improperly acquired assets, Wu said, and it is highly unlikely the DPP would be able to enact a law in a KMT-dominated legislature.

Wu, however, admitted that a successful referendum could have boosted the momentum for another referendum initiated by the DPP on applying to join the UN using the name Taiwan that will be held concurrently with the presidential election.

Chao said the March referendum would bear more significance and is the decisive battle.

With less than 70 days left before the presidential election, analysts said the DPP may adjust its campaign strategy to pull off a better showing in March.

Wu said Hsieh would play a more dominant role in mapping out the party's campaign strategy in the run-up to the March poll.

Chao agreed, saying that Chen, who resigned last night as DPP chairman, would be under tremendous pressure and would have to let Hsieh play a more decisive role in the race.

Chao said he did not think Chen need to to bear responsibility for the legislative defeat, but said Hsieh could face severe criticism from party members for distancing himself from the legislative polls.

The DPP would face a tougher battle ahead if the party were split and Hsieh lost the backing of his party members, Chao said.

As the presidential election looms, it is now up to voters to decide whether they want to see the country ruled by a single party holding both the executive and legislative reins, or a split government where the administration is constantly at odds with the legislature.
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