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ANALYSIS: US opposition to UN referendum subject of debate

"Beijing is smart enough to realize that they do not need to be vocal about Taiwan's UN referendum because they can hide behind Washington's back and use them to oppose the campaign."

Lin Cheng-yi, a research fellow at Academia Sinica

Since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) initiated a referendum on joining the UN using the name "Taiwan," Washington has strongly voiced its opposition to the plan.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice last week criticized the DPP government's UN referendum as a "provocative policy" that "unnecessarily raises tensions in the Taiwan Strait and ... promises no real benefits for the people of Taiwan on the international stage."

She was the highest ranking US official to express disapproval.

Lin Cheng-yi (林正義), a research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of European and American Studies, said he expected to see overall Taiwan-US relations return to normal next year after the country chooses a new leader.

He did not think the US opposition would deliver a significant blow to the DPP, unless the KMT uses it as a political tool and encourages its supporters to sink the proposal.

He said he also did not think the DPP would take advantage of US opposition to stir up public resentment against Washington because the DPP is well aware that most Taiwanese are not anti-American and it is relatively easier to whip up anti-China sentiment than anti-American feeling.

"Beijing is smart enough to realize that they do not need to be vocal about Taiwan's UN referendum because they can hide behind Washington's back and use them to oppose the campaign," he said.

Lin said Washington's disapproval has come at Beijing's request, but he also pointed out that while voicing opposition to Taiwan's UN referendum, Rice reiterated the US position that they do not want to see Beijing unilaterally change the "status quo" in the Taiwan Strait or use any non-peaceful means against Taiwan.

It is significant that the people of Taiwan send out a strong message to the world that they want to participate in the international community, he said, adding that the best-case scenario would be that both referendum proposals pass, because that would only strengthen the message and be in the best interests of the country.

Former presidential adviser Wu Li-pei (吳澧培) said the impact of US opposition to the UN referendum remains unclear.

One thing that seems apparent, however.

"It seems the shortest distance between Beijing and Taiwan is through Washington," Wu said.

While Beijing has kept relatively quiet on the referendum proposal, Wu said Washington was vociferous about it mainly because they did not want to see tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait and they wanted to placate China, who firmly believes that the referendum is a step toward Taiwan's de jure independence.

"If the US fails to stop Taiwan from holding the referendum, I suspect China will jump into the driver's seat and take matters into its own hands," he said. "It remains to be seen what impact that will have on Taiwan."

Wu said that it is wishful thinking to believe that the US would support Taiwan at this time because US interests in China are much greater than its interests in Taiwan.

"There is only interest in a diplomatic community," he said. "There is no such thing as right or wrong."

To break Taiwan's isolation in the international community, Wu proposed an appeal to the American public, including connecting with grassroots organizations and diverting diplomatic funding for the country's diplomatic allies to the US in a bid to secure broader understanding across the US of the situation here.

Jerome Keating, a Taiwan-based commentator, said he believed the US State Department was indulging in overkill and that its response to the UN referendum was excessive in the context of a bona fide plebiscite.

"They have made a commitment [to China] to hold back Taiwan without making it public," he said.

Keating said the US has consistently been misinformed on events on the ground in Taiwan.

"They are reaping the results of what they have sown by purposely keeping the position on Taiwan vague for over 50 years," he said.

To describe Rice's statement as "unfair" may not be the right word, Keating said, but rather "inappropriate" or "embarrassing."

"Here is the Secretary of State caught having to defend the indefensible. This all happens when at the same time the US is backing the independence of Kosovo against Russian influence," he said.
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