China's efforts over the past decade to become a more cooperative player in world affairs and improve relations with Washington could help position it to take over Taiwan in the long term by building up international support for a takeover, a leading China expert in Washington warned on Thursday.
Bates Gill, an academic at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that China would prefer to absorb Taiwan through diplomacy and economics, but warned that China's aggressive military buildup indicates that Beijing is still preparing for military action if needed.
He also spoke of a "very important constituency in Taiwan" that would welcome such a unification.
Gill made his comments in a presentation introducing his new book, Rising Star: China's New Security Diplomacy and its Implications for the United States, which details a new Chinese diplomatic effort begun in 1998-1999 to interact with other countries in world affairs and build a set of interests "convergent with US interests."
Describing Beijing's new policy toward Taiwan as "a combination of intensified carrots and intensified sticks," he said it was part of its overall new diplomatic strategy seeking "to create a space with regard to Taiwan so that it can realize national reunification, preferably through diplomatic and economic means."
At the same time, "under the rubric or umbrella of a more benign and constructive set of policies," Beijing is moving forward aggressively to build its military "to use that option if it needs to," he said.
For someone in Taiwan, Gill said, "I would breathe a sigh of relief that China's threat of a military solution is probably drastically diminished," compared with earlier years. But the reaction in Taiwan would ultimately depend on "who you are in Taiwan today."
"There are those who are going to breathe a sigh of relief because the new security diplomacy probably argues in favor of a peaceful environment across the Strait in the near to medium term," Gill said.
"But there are those who are not going to be very happy because it also argues for China increasingly positioning itself with its neighbors, with the United States, and even with a very important constituency in Taiwan, positioning itself in a way that is going to help it realize its goal of unification over the longer term," he said.
Gill did not name the Taiwanese constituency he mentioned, but appeared to be referring to the pan-blue camp.
US President Donald Trump said "it’s up to" Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) what China does on Taiwan, but that he would be "very unhappy" with a change in the "status quo," the New York Times said in an interview published yesterday. Xi "considers it to be a part of China, and that’s up to him what he’s going to be doing," Trump told the newspaper on Wednesday. "But I’ve expressed to him that I would be very unhappy if he did that, and I don’t think he’ll do that," he added. "I hope he doesn’t do that." Trump made the comments in
NOT AN OPENING: Trump’s violation of international law does not affect China’s consideration in attacking Taiwan; Beijing lacks capability, not precedent, an official said Taiwanese officials see the US’ capture of the president of Venezuela as a powerful deterrent to Beijing’s aggression and a timely reminder of the US’ ability to defeat militaries equipped with Chinese-made weapons. The strikes that toppled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro signaled to authoritarian leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), US President Donald Trump’s willingness to use military might for international affairs core to US interests, one senior official in Taipei’s security circle said. That reassured Taiwan, the person said. Taipei has also dismissed the idea that Trump’s apparent violation of international law could embolden Beijing, said the official, who was not
A cold surge advisory was today issued for 18 cities and counties across Taiwan, with temperatures of below 10°C forecast during the day and into tonight, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. New Taipei City, Taipei, Taoyuan and Hsinchu, Miaoli and Yilan counties are expected to experience sustained temperatures of 10°C or lower, the CWA said. Temperatures are likely to temporarily drop below 10°C in most other areas, except Taitung, Pingtung, Penghu and Lienchiang (Matsu) counties, CWA data showed. The cold weather is being caused by a strong continental cold air mass, combined with radiative cooling, a process in which heat escapes from
Snow this morning fell on Alishan for the first time in seven years, as a strong continental cold air mass sent temperatures plunging across Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The Alishan weather station, located at an elevation of about 2,200m in central Taiwan, recorded snowfall from 8:55am to 9:15am, when the temperature dropped to about 1°C, the CWA said. With increased moisture and low temperatures in the high-altitude Alishan area, the conditions were favorable for snow, CWA forecaster Tsai Yi-chi (蔡伊其) said. The last time snow fell at the Alishan weather station was on Jan. 10, 2018, while graupel fell there
RSS