Mon, Jun 12, 2006 page3

• Chen's power transfer set DPP bigwigs scrambling for advantage, analysts say

  • By Ko Shu-ling / STAFF REPORTER
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  President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) recent decision to delegate powers to Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and other ranking party officials has changed the relationship between the governing party's heavyweights.

  Facing mounting pressure due to a spate of corruption scandals involving his relatives and inner circle, Chen announced on May 31 that he would relinquish his party responsibilities and focus solely on doing his job as president, leaving it to ranking Cabinet and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) members to make their own calls on other matters.

  Analysts calculated that the move would shift relations between the DPP's bigwigs: Su, DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun, former premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) and Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮).

  As head of the government, Su apparently benefits the most from Chen's decision. Previously, Su was thought to support a more moderate approach than Chen, especially on cross-strait policies -- though Su has denied any such rift.

  Since Chen transferred powers to Su, Su has shown a tremendous amount of respect to the president because, analysts said, Su realized it was in his interest to toe Chen's line and maintain friendly relations with his supervisor.

  Yu has recognized that the administration must perform well in order for him to be a viable 2008 candidate.

  "Yu stands a better chance of running in the 2008 presidential election only if the administration performs well," said Ku Chung-hwa (顧忠華), an executive member of the Taipei Society. "Only through cooperation with other party heavyweights such as Su can he create a better image for himself and turn around the public perception that the party's heavyweights are fighting ferociously over the presidency."

  Although the prospect of a DPP victory in the year-end Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections and next year's legislative elections seems dim, Ku said that he does not think that Yu will resign if the party loses the elections.

  It has been the DPP's tradition that if the party is defeated in an election, the party chairman steps down to take political responsibility.

  According to Ku, Hsieh, who was originally reluctant to run in the Taipei mayoral race, is now expected to join that contest because he has finally realized that he would suffer most politically from Chen's power transfer if he fails to secure a role in the political arena, and that Su benefits most from Chen's move.

  "It is clear that Su, Yu and Hsieh have formed a political alliance following Chen's announcement to delegate powers," Ku said. "Their common strategy is to respect Bian [Chen's nickname] and ignore Lu."

  Despite reports that former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) was in favor of a collaboration between Lu and Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) if Chen is recalled, Ku said that he does not think Lee would make his preference known before the truth of the scandals is learned.

  "I suspect that was the speculation of some Taiwan Solidarity Union members or merely a test balloon or foul-up," he said. "I don't think there is any room for the so-called `third political force' unless Chen is found to be involved in the scandal."

  Shih Cheng-feng (施正鋒), a political science professor at Tamkang University, expressed similar opinions. Shih said that he doubted whether Lu would switch her allegiance from Chen and form an alliance with a non-DPP member, especially when the situation is still unclear.

  Shih attributed Hsieh's change of heart to run in the Taipei mayoral race to People First Party Chairman James Soong's (宋楚瑜) intention to run and the DPP's plan to amend an internal election rule.

  The rule stipulates that party candidates who fail in an election cannot be nominated again for another election for another two years. By that rule, Hsieh would not be able to run for the presidency in 2008 as the DPP's candidate if he lost the Taipei mayoral election.

  While Su and Yu have different preferences for the party's Kaohsiung mayoral candidate, Shih said that Hsieh is their common enemy.

  "That is why Su and Yu are gearing up to persuade Hsieh to run in Taipei because the last thing they want to see is Hsieh, a former Kaohsiung mayor, stay in the south and consolidate his political power there," Shih said.

  In addition to joining forces with Yu against Hsieh, Shih said that Su would continue to stand behind Chen in a bid to keep Lu out of play.

  The political maneuvering among the DPP's four heavyweights is just beginning, he said.
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