Sun, Dec 04, 2005 page4

• Result may force changes to DPP's policy on China

  FALLOUT The election results indicate that Ma Ying-jeou has consolidated his power within the KMT, with the DPP held back by infighting, analysts said

  • By Jewel Huang / STAFF REPORTER
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  The Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corp scandal involving a former official of the Presidential Office may force the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government to make concessions in cross-strait policy since the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) -- which has adopted a cooperative relationship with China -- won a landslide victory in yesterday's election, political analysts said.

  "The DPP government will have more difficulties over the next two years, and the first thorny problem that President Chen Shui-bian [陳水扁] will have to contend with is whether he should change his policies toward China. And he might be forced to wind down restrictions in cross-strait affairs," political analyst Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明) said yesterday.

  Hsu is also a research fellow at the Academia Sinica.

  Hsu said that a series of scandals that plagued the DPP throughout the campaign could be seen as the major factor hampering it in this election, in which it lost many constituencies -- including Taipei, Nantou, Ilan and Changhua counties, as well as Chiayi City.

  "The DPP's high-ranking officials need to really investigate ways to rebuild voters' faith, if they want to secure their position of power in 2008," Hsu said.

  Wang Yeh-li (王業立), a political science professor at Tunghai University, said the election results indicate that pan-green supporters were dissatisfied with the DPP government's performance and were not motivated to vote for the party they have supported in the past.

  "The overall political climate is unfavorable to the ruling party, and a series of corruption scandals weakened pan-green voters' desire to vote, or caused them to turn to the pan-blue camp," Wang said.

  Additionally, many of the DPP's local chiefs did not perform satisfactorily, and the pan-blue candidates did a better job serving the local people and plugging in to local networks, which helped them to win voters' hearts.

  Shih Cheng-feng (施正鋒), a professor at Tamkang University's Department of Public Administration, said that the DPP's internal disputes and conflicts were the major factors behind its election debacle.

  "Competition between different internal factions and contention for the 2008 presidential nomination have divided the DPP," Shih said.

  "The desire for power has undermined the down-to-earth attitude of its political leadership, and the change has been felt by voters and reflected in their voting behavior," Shih said.

  Political analysts also contended the election demonstrated that KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) holds a strong appeal and charisma, attracting both pan-blue supporters and neutral voters.

  Hsu said that Ma has successfully consolidated pan-blue party identification and confirmed his political supremacy in the pan-blue camp.

  Ma has been regarded as a savior and the only figure capable of leading the KMT's resurgence.

  Wang echoed Hsu, saying that Ma's popularity proved the KMT could cross the Choshui River (濁水溪).

  Traditionally, the region south of the Choshui River has been in the hands of pan-green politicians.

  Shih also noted Ma's successful strategy.

  "Ma vowing to step down from his chairmanship effectively roused the pan-blue supporters' sense of crisis and proved lethal to the DPP in the elections," Shih said.

  However, political analysts also pointed out that voters seemed to feel they understood Ma more throughout the course of the campaign, although many might have found him to be less principled than they'd thought.

  "Although this election might not shake his standing in the pan-blue camp, Ma was unable to gain the total advantage from the election campaign," Hsu said.

  Hsu noted that Ma had played many petty tricks during the campaign, endorsing many KMT candidates who have records of corruption, which might damage his image of being trustworthy.

  Meanwhile, judging from KMT candidates' backgrounds and the party's campaign strategy, Hsu thought that it had risked its long-established image of being the more "stable" and "decent" political party.

  "The KMT adopted campaign sleight of hand that the DPP has used, and it has become more and more like an opposition party," Hsu said.

  Meanwhile, DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang's (蘇貞昌) resignation will not necessarily doom his political future, Hsu said.

  On Friday Su promised to step down if the DPP's candidate lost in Taipei County.

  "Su made an effort to campaign for the DPP candidate for Taipei County, Luo Wen-chia [羅文嘉], and pan-green voters might not blame him for this election outcome," Hsu said. "Su could be deemed as a tragic hero, and DPP supporters might think they owe him one, and give him a chance to make a comeback."
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