Within five years, China's armed forces may be able to prevent the US from coming to Taiwan's aid against a military attack from China, a new US congressional report warns. Some expert observers, the report adds, feel that the Chinese military may already have such capabilities.
With current US naval capabilities, it could take two weeks or longer for the US to respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, lessening the chances that it could thwart China, the report says.
The document, China Naval Modernization: Implications for US Naval Capabilities, Background and Issues for Congress, was prepared in secret by the Congressional Research Service to help Congressional committees with oversight of the military to plan for US defense needs in the Western Pacific. It was published on Monday by the Federation of American Scientists' Project on Government Secrecy, an organization that brings security-related information to public attention.
"Some analysts speculate that China may attain [or believe that it has attained] a capable maritime anti-access capability, or important elements of it, by about 2010," the report says.
Anti-access capability refers to preventing US naval access to the Taiwan Strait.
The issue of when China could attain such capabilities, the report says, "is significant because it can influence the kinds of options that are available to US policymakers for addressing the situation."
The potential for a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait was a main focus of the report.
"Observers believe that China's military modernization is aimed at fielding a force that can succeed in a short-duration conflict with Taiwan that finishes before the United States is able to intervene," the report says.
The Pentagon wants Taiwan to focus on acquiring systems that would "lengthen the time Taiwan could deny the PRC [People's Republic of China] from gaining air superiority, sea control, and physical occupation of [Taipei]," it says.
The time needed would be "at least five days" after a "credible warning" that an attack is imminent or underway.
But even then, the congressional researchers warn, the US navy might not be up to the task.
The report notes that so-called "early arriving forces," often involving warships stationed close to the Strait, would be of particular importance in a short conflict over Taiwan. Addressing this could involve having US warships based in locations such as Japan, Guam, Singapore or Hawaii, rather than the US West Coast.
At an expected average speed of 25 knots (46kph), over long Pacific Ocean distances for US submarines, aircraft carriers, cruisers and destroyers, a ship based in San Diego, California would take nearly 10 days to reach an area east of Taiwan after setting sail.
By contrast, a US warship based in Yokosuka, Japan, would take just under two days, one in Guam would take 2.2 days, and a ship sailing from Pearl Harbor in Hawaii would take more than seven days.
But added to these times would be delays for at-sea refueling, rough sea conditions, and the need to avoid sea mines and deal with other contingencies. Moreover, it would take time to get a ship and its crew ready to leave port.
Depending on a ship's status, "preparing it for rapid departure might require anywhere from less than one day to a few days," the report quotes a military expert as saying.
At present, the US has only one aircraft carrier based in the Western Pacific -- in Japan. The closest additional carriers are on the US West Coast, although carrier groups are regularly at sea in the Pacific, patrolling the area and conducting drills to hone their wartime skills.
"Given that a conflict with China could begin with little warning, this means that as much as two weeks could elapse before additional aircraft carriers reach the area of combat operations," the report quotes another expert as saying.
An increase in Taiwanese boats using China-made automatic identification systems (AIS) could confuse coast guards patrolling waters off Taiwan’s southwest coast and become a loophole in the national security system, sources familiar with the matter said yesterday. Taiwan ADIZ, a Facebook page created by enthusiasts who monitor Chinese military activities in airspace and waters off Taiwan’s southwest coast, on Saturday identified what seemed to be a Chinese cargo container ship near Penghu County. The Coast Guard Administration went to the location after receiving the tip and found that it was a Taiwanese yacht, which had a Chinese AIS installed. Similar instances had also
GOOD DIPLOMACY: The KMT has maintained close contact with representative offices in Taiwan and had extended an invitation to Russia as well, the KMT said The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) would “appropriately handle” the fallout from an invitation it had extended to Russia’s representative to Taipei to attend its international banquet last month, KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) said yesterday. US and EU representatives in Taiwan boycotted the event, and only later agreed to attend after the KMT rescinded its invitation to the Russian representative. The KMT has maintained long-term close contact with all representative offices and embassies in Taiwan, and had extended the invitation as a practice of good diplomacy, Chu said. “Some EU countries have expressed their opinions of Russia, and the KMT respects that,” he
AMENDMENT: Contact with certain individuals in China, Hong Kong and Macau must be reported, and failure to comply could result in a prison sentence, the proposal stated The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) yesterday voted against a proposed bill by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers that would require elected officials to seek approval before visiting China. DPP Legislator Puma Shen’s (沈伯洋) proposed amendments to the Act Governing Relations Between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area (臺灣地區與大陸地區人民關係條例), stipulate that contact with certain individuals in China, Hong Kong and Macau should be reported, while failure to comply would be punishable by prison sentences of up to three years, alongside a fine of NT$10 million (US$309,041). Fifty-six voted with the TPP in opposition
VIGILANCE: The military is paying close attention to actions that might damage peace and stability in the region, the deputy minister of national defense said The People’s Republic of China (PRC) might consider initiating a hack on Taiwanese networks on May 20, the day of the inauguration ceremony of president-elect William Lai (賴清德), sources familiar with cross-strait issues said. While US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s statement of the US expectation “that all sides will conduct themselves with restraint and prudence in the period ahead” would prevent military actions by China, Beijing could still try to sabotage Taiwan’s inauguration ceremony, the source said. China might gain access to the video screens outside of the Presidential Office Building and display embarrassing messages from Beijing, such as congratulating Lai