Within five years, China's armed forces may be able to prevent the US from coming to Taiwan's aid against a military attack from China, a new US congressional report warns. Some expert observers, the report adds, feel that the Chinese military may already have such capabilities.
With current US naval capabilities, it could take two weeks or longer for the US to respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, lessening the chances that it could thwart China, the report says.
The document, China Naval Modernization: Implications for US Naval Capabilities, Background and Issues for Congress, was prepared in secret by the Congressional Research Service to help Congressional committees with oversight of the military to plan for US defense needs in the Western Pacific. It was published on Monday by the Federation of American Scientists' Project on Government Secrecy, an organization that brings security-related information to public attention.
"Some analysts speculate that China may attain [or believe that it has attained] a capable maritime anti-access capability, or important elements of it, by about 2010," the report says.
Anti-access capability refers to preventing US naval access to the Taiwan Strait.
The issue of when China could attain such capabilities, the report says, "is significant because it can influence the kinds of options that are available to US policymakers for addressing the situation."
The potential for a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait was a main focus of the report.
"Observers believe that China's military modernization is aimed at fielding a force that can succeed in a short-duration conflict with Taiwan that finishes before the United States is able to intervene," the report says.
The Pentagon wants Taiwan to focus on acquiring systems that would "lengthen the time Taiwan could deny the PRC [People's Republic of China] from gaining air superiority, sea control, and physical occupation of [Taipei]," it says.
The time needed would be "at least five days" after a "credible warning" that an attack is imminent or underway.
But even then, the congressional researchers warn, the US navy might not be up to the task.
The report notes that so-called "early arriving forces," often involving warships stationed close to the Strait, would be of particular importance in a short conflict over Taiwan. Addressing this could involve having US warships based in locations such as Japan, Guam, Singapore or Hawaii, rather than the US West Coast.
At an expected average speed of 25 knots (46kph), over long Pacific Ocean distances for US submarines, aircraft carriers, cruisers and destroyers, a ship based in San Diego, California would take nearly 10 days to reach an area east of Taiwan after setting sail.
By contrast, a US warship based in Yokosuka, Japan, would take just under two days, one in Guam would take 2.2 days, and a ship sailing from Pearl Harbor in Hawaii would take more than seven days.
But added to these times would be delays for at-sea refueling, rough sea conditions, and the need to avoid sea mines and deal with other contingencies. Moreover, it would take time to get a ship and its crew ready to leave port.
Depending on a ship's status, "preparing it for rapid departure might require anywhere from less than one day to a few days," the report quotes a military expert as saying.
At present, the US has only one aircraft carrier based in the Western Pacific -- in Japan. The closest additional carriers are on the US West Coast, although carrier groups are regularly at sea in the Pacific, patrolling the area and conducting drills to hone their wartime skills.
"Given that a conflict with China could begin with little warning, this means that as much as two weeks could elapse before additional aircraft carriers reach the area of combat operations," the report quotes another expert as saying.
The first of 10 new high-capacity trains purchased from South Korea’s Hyundai Rotem arrived at the Port of Taipei yesterday to meet the demands of an expanding metro network, Taipei Rapid Transit Corp (TRTC) said yesterday. The train completed a three-day, 1,200km voyage from the Port of Masan in South Korea, the company said. Costing NT$590 million (US$18.79 million) each, the new six-carriage trains feature a redesigned interior based on "human-centric" transportation concepts, TRTC said. The design utilizes continuous longitudinal seating to widen the aisles and optimize passenger flow, while also upgrading passenger information displays and driving control systems for a more comfortable
Taiwan's first indigenous defense submarine, the SS-711 Hai Kun (海鯤, or Narwhal), departed for its 13th sea trial at 7am today, marking its seventh submerged test, with delivery to the navy scheduled for July. The outing also marked its first sea deployment since President William Lai (賴清德) boarded the submarine for an inspection on March 19, drawing a crowd of military enthusiasts who gathered to show support. The submarine this morning departed port accompanied by CSBC Corp’s Endeavor Manta (奮進魔鬼魚號) uncrewed surface vessel and a navy M109 assault boat. Amid public interest in key milestones such as torpedo-launching operations and overnight submerged trials,
Quarantine awareness posters at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport have gone viral for their use of wordplay. Issued by the airport branch of the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Agency, the posters feature sniffer dogs making a range of facial expressions, paired with advisory messages built around homophones. “We update the messages for holidays and campaign needs, periodically refreshing materials to attract people’s attention,” quarantine officials said. “The aim is to use the dogs’ appeal to draw focus to quarantine regulations.” A Japanese traveler visiting Taiwan has posted a photo on X of a poster showing a quarantine dog with a
Taiwan’s coffee community has launched a “one-person-one-e-mail” campaign, calling for people to send a protest-e-mail to the World Coffee Championships (WCC) urging it to redesignate Taiwanese competitors as from “Taiwan,” rather than “Chinese Taipei.” The call followed sudden action last week after the WCC changed all references to Taiwanese competitors from “Taiwan” to “Chinese Taipei,” including recent World Latte Art champion Bala (林紹興), who won the World Latte Art Championship in San Diego earlier this month. When Bala received the trophy, he was referred to as representing Taiwan, as well as in the announcement on the WCC’s Web site, until it
RSS