Wed, Jun 08, 2005 page3

• TSU's future in doubt after electoral reforms

  COOPERATION OR CONFRONTATION? Some analysts said the party must get along with the DPP to survive but others say going its own way could be a better strategy

  • By Jewel Huang / STAFF REPORTER
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  Cooperation with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) might be the only way for the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) to survive under the new electoral system approved by the National Assembly yesterday, political analysts said yesterday.

  "Given that the DPP's votes overlap with the TSU's, I think the best strategy for the TSU at this point is to cooperate with the DPP in line with the TSU's actual strength in each constituency," said presidential advisor Chin Heng-wei (金恆煒), who is editor-in-chief of Contemporary Magazine.

  "The small parties of the Fifth Republic of France used such a strategy to secure their development, which worked," Chin said.

  With the passage of the constitutional amendment, the new "single-member district, two-vote" electoral system will be adopted in 2007. Under this electoral system, small parties will likely be squeezed out by the two big parties since there is only one seat in each constituency.

  "The current circumstance for the pan-green camp is that separation will hurt both sides, but cooperation will benefits both sides," Chin said.

  The TSU's situation is different from that of the People First Party (PFP), which will inevitably be absorbed by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) if it resists merging with the KMT, because the two pan-blue parties's platforms are so similar, he said.

  The TSU, by contrast, has its own steadfast supporters who will not convert to the DPP, because of their adherence to a belief in Taiwan's independence and former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) political line, Chin said.

  The DPP will also need to collaborate with the TSU given that the "single-member district and two-vote system" is somewhat unfavorable to the DPP, he said.

  "How the constituencies are delimited will influence the DPP's mode of cooperation with the TSU," Chin added.

  The urgency for the TSU is to settle on a future direction, and decide whether to challenge President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) authority or assist him.

  "I don't think the new electoral system foreshadows a dim destiny for small parties," Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), a research fellow at the Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences at Academia Sinica. "As long as the TSU figures out its future political line, it still has a chance to become the third-largest party in the legislature."

  "But it is time for the TSU to think about where its opportunities are," Hsu said. "It seems that now the TSU has two factions -- one made up of those who have public posts, such as legislators or presidential advisors, and other made up of those who have nothing."

  The thinking and action of these two factions is quite different, Hsu said, pointing out that TSU members who have public offices maintain that the party should cooperate with Chen, while the other faction insists on taking a confrontational position against the DPP government.

  Hsu said the TSU has to cool down after its outrage over the passage of constitutional amendments and think about whether it should go back to its old stance of supporting Chen's government.

  "Lee decided to support Chen before the legislative elections last December," Hsu said. "Looking back at history, the DPP also chose to cooperate with Lee when it was an opposition party to expand its room for growth, which proved to be effective. The TSU might follow the same model and try to work with Chen."

  "Chen might take the TSU into consideration when making decisions or political arrangements if the TSU becomes loyal to him," Hsu said.

  Shih Cheng-feng (施正鋒), a professor in Tamkang University's department of public administration, echoed part of Hsu's opinion, saying that conflict within the TSU is hampering the party.

  "The TSU includes members coming from the DPP and the KMT, who form invisible factions," Shih said. "I think it's a crisis that the TSU leader has to tackle."

  Shih said the TSU cannot give in to the DPP in future elections. On the contrary, it should battle hard for its own nominees in the year-end elections for city mayors and county commissioners.

  "I think the TSU should try its best to nominate candidates in every constituency in the year-end elections, so that it can force the DPP to negotiate with it," Shih said.

  "If the DPP senses that the TSU's strategy could endanger its own chances, then the TSU could seize the chance to negotiate on [pan-green] cooperation in the next legislative elections in 2007, and even the presidential election in 2008," he said.

  "I think being uncooperative now could later win [the DPP's] cooperation [for the TSU]," Shih said.
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