Mon, Dec 13, 2004 page3

• Saturday not a defeat for DPP, analysts say

  FALSE EXPECTATIONS Although the election was taken as a huge blow to the pan-green camp, the DPP increased its vote share and picked up two legislative seats

  • By Caroline Hong / STAFF REPORTER
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  While the results of Saturday's legislative elections can be considered a setback for the pan-green camp, the results do not necessarily indicate a defeat for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), analysts said yesterday.

  Speaking at the "Implications of the 2004 Legislative Election in Taiwan" forum in Taipei co-hosted by the Institute for Policy Research, foreign and local academics discussed the factors behind the election results and the possible impact on the future direction and leadership of the four major political parties.

  Although the pan-blue alliance, which won a total of 114 out of 225 seats, has portrayed the election results as a major coup, the fact that the DPP managed to increase the number of its seats in the legislature from 87 to 89 and its vote share from 38.7 percent in the 2001 legislative elections to 39.6 percent Saturday, shows that the election was not the significant defeat suggested by both camps' reaction Saturday night, panelists said.

  "While the results mark a disappointment for the pan-green camp, the reality is that the political map of Taiwan is not changed after the election. The two camps are still about the same size," said Liu Yi-chou (劉義周), the director of National Chengchi University's Election Study Center, yesterday.

  A major reason behind the pan-green camp's failure to win a majority was its over-nomination of candidates, analysts said. In comparison to the pan-blue camp, which nominated only 116 candidates this year, the pan-green camp nominated 122.

  Saying that the legislative election was the most stable election in Taiwan, Liu pointed out that in most past legislative elections, the DPP had continually increased its vote share, but by no more than 5 percent in each election.

  The DPP's vote share was 28.26 percent in 1989, 33.03 percent in 1992, 33.17 percent in 1995 and 29.57 percent in 1998, before jumping to 38.7 percent in 2001.

  In addition to the pan-blue camp's more conservative nomination strategy, the fact that the New Party nominated only eight candidates this year, compared to 42 in 2001, added to an even distribution of pan-blue votes, noted Dafydd Fell, a visiting academic at National Sun Yat-Sen University.

  Panelists also focused on the pan-green camp's choice of issues in this year's election as a possible reason for Saturday's results.

  "The DPP defeated itself," said Chi Nan University public policy professor Byron Weng (翁松燃) yesterday, adding that the pan-green camp's misjudgment of the support they had from the electorate was a key element of its defeat.

  "The DPP overestimated its own potential [to win a majority] and their affiliation with the people," Wend said. "Because the pan-blue camp made so many mistakes after the March 20 presidential election, all media pundits were predicting that the pan-green camp would win a majority. This went to the DPP's head, which judged the [electorate] situation to be more polarized than it really was."

  That overconfidence led President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), the DPP's front man in the legislative campaign, in his decision to abandon the moderate stance he took during the March 20 presidential campaign. Centrist voters may have been alienated by comments such as the pan-green camp's characterization of Sun Yat-sen (孫中山), the founding father of the Republic of China, as a foreigner.

  "Taiwan has a very moderate electorate, and punishes political parties and figures [that are more extreme]," Fell said.

  As an example, Fell pointed to the drop in voter support for the People First Party (PFP), which had garnered 20.4 percent of the vote in the 2001 legislative elections and only 15.1 percent this time. He said the electorate may have been showing its disapproval of the PFP's active involvement in the more violent conflicts in the days after the March election.

  The election results bode ill for pan-green alliance member the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), panelists said. The TSU also was overambitious in its nominations, as was shown by the fact that only seven of its 30 candidates for regional legislative seats were successful in their bids Saturday. Furthermore, the results indicate that the "magic" of former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) is fading, panelists said.

  Panelists yesterday did agree that the election was a victory for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), which outperformed expectations by winning 80 seats.

  The KMT's success will give a reprieve to Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), who has been facing pressure after the party's successive defeats in the past two presidential elections, analysts said.

  However, rather than predicting Lien's continuation as the KMT's leader, several of the panelists yesterday called on Lien to resign.

  "The party has performed much better than Lien Chan himself. If I were Lien, I would step down now before it is too late. By doing so, he can keep party supporters' good memory of him," Liu said.

  Saturday also places fellow pan-blue leader, PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), in a tight spot, given his party's less than promising performance. However, since the party retained more than 30 seats in the legislature, it seems unlikely that the PFP will fade away, Liu said.

  But he said it is unlikely that the PFP and the KMT will end up merging next year as planned, given the many conflicts that appeared between the two parties in the election run-up.
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