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Campaign Special ( What's Next ) - DPP heavyweights eye new posts

"The odds of the premier changing before May or even the year-end legislative election seem slim."

Chang Kuo-cheng, former deputy director of the DPP's Department of Chinese Affairs

Despite the pan-blue camp's declaration yesterday that the election result was invalid, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) must immediately determine the line-up of his new Cabinet and the future direction of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) before the dispute is resolved.

One thing is for sure: Chen must continue at the party's helm. According to the DPP's charter, revised in April 2002, the head of state must lead the party while it is in power, while party members must directly elect its chairman when it is in opposition.

Although Premier Yu Shyi-kun might normally be expected to lead Cabinet officials in resigning en masse before the May inauguration, he may continue to lead the Cabinet until the year-end legislative elections before doing so, political observers said.

"The odds of the premier changing before May or even the year-end legislative election seem slim. One of the reasons for this is that Yu helped Chen earn 40,000 more votes than his rivals in Yu's home county of Ilan," said Chang Kuo-cheng (張國城), a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Wisconsin and former deputy director of the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) Department of Chinese Affairs.

Although Yu has publicly announced that he aims to retire after the election to spend more time with his family, Chang interpreted Yu's words as a political gesture of modesty.

"I don't think he's so old

or feeble that he should stop working," Chang said.

"Besides, there's no reason for him to quit, since the DPP has won the presidential election and will probably prevail again in the year-end legislative election," he said.

Yu's premiership, however, would face a challenge after the legislative election, particularly after December next year when Taipei County Commissioner Su Tseng-chang's (蘇貞昌) four-year term expires.

Su and Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) are considered to be the party's top stars after Chen. Their reputations have been established through excellent administrative and electoral performances in northern and southern Taiwan.

Su might stand a better chance of becoming premier, however, because of his political charisma, according to a high-ranking official at DPP headquarters who asked not to be named.

The official also agreed with Chang that Yu would retain his post until the end of the year but that he would face a challenge after December next year.

It is also possible that Su may run in the Taipei City mayoral election in 2006 because incumbent Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) will not be eligible for election after having served two four-year terms.

In addition to Su and Hsieh, the official said that nobody could rule out Council for Hakka Affairs Chairwoman Yeh Chu-lan (葉菊蘭), who stands a good chance of being appointed premier because of her personal capabilities and varied political experience.

Yeh, a Hakka, served as a legislator between 1990 and 2000 and was the transportation and communications minister between 2000 and 2002.

Secretary General to the Presidential Office Chiou I-jen (邱義仁) might retain his post and continue to operate in his important position in a low-key manner, as befits his personality.

Chiou, whom Chen depends on, is considered a cunning strategist who generates a considerable number of innovative ideas.

As for DPP campaign spokesperson Wu Nai-jen (吳乃仁), the official said he might return to head one of the nation's state-run businesses, as he did before taking up the position of spokesman for the DPP's campaign office, because he has showed little interest in assuming government posts.

DPP Secretary-General Chang Chun-hsiung (張俊雄), who served as premier between 2000 and 2002 and as a legislator between 1983 and 2000, might fulfill his wish to helm the Control Yuan, leaving his position to be possibly filled by DPP Deputy Secretary-General Lee Ying-yuan (李應元).

Lee was the Cabinet secretary-general in 2002 and was elected to the legislature for the first

time in 1995 representing Taipei County.
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